May 08

 

Germany and the U.K., Europe’s two largest consumers of natural gas, are likely to lean ever more heavily on the fuel to meet energy needs in the coming years, as the expansion of low-carbon nuclear and renewable power falls short of their needs.

This extra demand would probably be met by high-priced imports, such as gas brought in from Russia via pipelines or liquefied natural gas from the Middle East and Africa. For a continent already grappling with its long-term competitiveness, this could be bad news. “Low prices for natural gas offer manufacturing a powerful competitive advantage, potentially stimulating much broader economic growth,” said Mark Williams, downstream director for energy giant Royal Dutch Shell PLC.

The U.S. is enjoying just that, thanks to a boom in production of natural gas trapped in shale rock. In Europe, there are hopes that its shale-gas resources could eventually help it at least partially mimic the U.S. The big shift that is pushing the U.K. and Germany toward greater dependence on gas is the decline in nuclear power.

After the Japanese earthquake and tsunami triggered a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear-power plant last year, the German government decided to close all of its nuclear reactors, which produce 13 gigawatts of power, or the equivalent of 8% of Germany’s energy-generating capacity, by 2022. This coincides with the end of life spans for all but one of the U.K.’s reactors by 2023 that will leave just 1.2 gigawatts of capacity of the 11 gigawatts that they currently produce.

Several European and British utilities have planned to build 16 gigawatts of new nuclear reactors, but some projects are now in doubt as their backers say it is uncertain that these plants can operate profitably given current electricity prices.

German utilities E.ON AG and RWE AG have abandoned a joint venture to build new nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 6 gigawatts because they lacked the capital to finance the work and external financing was scarce.

In February, U.K. utility Scottish and Southern Energy SSE.LN +0.23% PLC quit a consortium with GDF Suez SA and Iberdrola SA IBE.MC -1.59% to build plants with 3.6 gigawatts of planned new nuclear capacity in order to focus on renewable energy. GDF Suez and Iberdrola say they remain committed, but analysts say the projects are more doubtful. A major expansion of coal power would cause countries to miss their carbon-reduction targets, and it seems unlikely that renewable energy could quickly fill this gap. “Most clean energy technologies are not being deployed quickly enough, [and] are not on track to make their required contribution,” the International Energy Agency said in a report last month.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said an additional 10 gigawatts of gas-fired power plants will be built by 2022 to fill the gap left by shuttered nuclear plants. In the U.K., even the most optimistic scenario for the use of nuclear power leaves a 6-gigawatt hole to be filled, most likely by gas. Assuming the most efficient gas-fired power plants were built, replacing these reactors would add around 14 billion cubic meters a year to European gas demand, equivalent to almost 3% of 2010 EU gas consumption. This figure could rise further if the U.K. government can’t come up with stronger financial support for new nuclear projects.

Meeting this extra demand could prove expensive. Pipeline gas from Russia is priced on a formula tied to crude oil, so is relatively expensive. Goldman Sachs expects oil-indexed natural gas on continental Europe to sell at an average price of $13.60 per million British thermal units this year, a 24% premium to the market price in the U.K., which gets around half its gas from the North Sea. Rising demand for LNG from Asia is also pushing up prices.

The amount of LNG available to the U.K. in the first quarter of 2012 halved from the same period a year earlier, after the country was outbid by Asian customers, and it had to import more oil-indexed gas to compensate, said Barclays analyst Trevor Sikorski. “We expect the LNG market to increasingly tighten as we go through the next few years,” he said. However, recent developments in the gas industry mean this is by no means set in stone.

Many companies believe the U.K. and Germany’s neighbor Poland may hold resources that would enable them to at least partially mimic the boom in shale gas production that has pushed U.S. gas prices to 10-year lows. Industry analysts say there are still questions over how cheaply and quickly these resources could be tapped. “Forget about straight-line forecasts for natural gas demand and supply,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a senior gas analyst at the International Energy Agency. Shale gas opens the way for “patterns [to] suddenly diverge from the conventional view in the most unexpected way.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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May 07

 

In a recent report, The Lavtian based ThinkFoundation examined the opportunity that shale gas development provides for Baltic Energy Security. The following summarizes key elements of the report – Global Developments in Shale Gas:A Game Changer for the European and Baltic and Energy Security

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia face exclusive dependence on Russian gas as well as near-exclusive dependence on electricity, and with lack of grids with other EU countries.  These factors results in high-energy prices, energy insecurity and increased vulnerability.

Background

The Baltic States energy sector bears scars of their Soviet legacy and are highly dependent on energy imports due to lack of infrastructure. The vulnerability is especially high in the gas sector: the three Baltic States have no gas reserves of their own and are 100 per cent dependant on imports from just one supplier: Russia’s Gazprom.

Despite facing a similar predicament, the three Baltic States cannot be thrown in the same pot. Each state has its unique energy mix with its weaknesses and strengths that are examined in detail, as examined below.

Lithuania

Lithuania is arguably the most vulnerable state in the Baltics. Until recently Lithuania was producing most of its electricity (70.7% as of 2009) at its nuclear power plant in Ignalina. This changed in 2010, when the plant had to be closed down in order to comply with the agreement made in tandem with joining the EU.

Even though the closure of the plant did not require the once energy exporting nation to resort to electricity imports by default, as elsewhere reported, it did nonetheless transform the country’s energy sector.

If needed, Lithuania is capable of covering the annual electricity consumption by producing all of it within its borders, namely at its power plant in Elektrenai. The problem lays in the fact that Elektrenai is mainly gas-powered plant, which means that the fuel for running it would have to be imported.

Leaving the security of gas supply issue for a later discussion, the significance for Lithuania of switchover from nuclear to gaseous fuel is two- fold:

Firstly, it is more expensive to produce electricity in a gas-powered power plant than it was in Ignalina. To compensate the difference, Lithuanian government decided to import half of its electricity from neighboring countries. Thus production costs were favored over electricity production autonomy.

Secondly, by deciding to  prioritize energy price and resorting to import of electricity, Lithuania has voluntarily increased its dependency on Russia as it currently offers the cheapest supplies.

To compensate the shortage of electricity supplies, the Lithuanian government is proposing to build a new nuclear power plant in the area nearby from the decommissioned Ignalina power plant.  The new power station, Visaginas, would be a joint project between the three Baltic States and Poland. Despite the recent nuclear accident in Japan , Lithuanian officials seem undeterred and insist that indeed, “now is the best time to build nuclear!”

However, even if the construction of Visaginas begins as planned in 2014, it will not be operational until 2020. The only participant in the Lithuania Energy Ministry last year’s tender in search for a strategic investor, Korea’s Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), withdrew its offer.  It is interesting to note that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited to South Korea just two prior to KEPCO’s withdrawal.

It is clear that the Visaginas project is not as conclusive as the Lithuanian government would like to convey.

Latvia

Whereas Latvia produces no oil, it has large underground gas storage facilities. Equally, while Latvia is not an entirely self-sufficient electricity producer, electricity production mostly from hydroelectric plants, satisfies 88% of domestic consumption. However, the picture becomes less rosy when other energy resources are reviewed.

To satisfy overall energy consumption demand, as much as two thirds of Latvia’s energy is imported.  Even though there are plans to construct a new 400 mega watt power plant between 2015-2025, under status quo it would shift the problem of dependency from one area to another– the new power plant would be fuelled using liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Both gas and LNG would still need to be imported, although not necessarily from Russia. Moreover, the potential usage of LNG would require the construction of terminal and a  proposal to build a facility in Latvia is underway.  In theory it could increase energy security not only for Latvia and the other two Baltic States, but also Finland.

Latvia has a comparative advantage in building the terminal as the state owned underground gas station in Incukalns – one of the biggest in Europe with active volume of 2.3 billion cubic meters, – is seen as a vital link that could be utilized if the LNG terminal is built nearby.  Some Lithuanian energy experts have backed the idea for a joint LNG terminal in Riga.

However, a dispute over Incukalns ownership could potentially complicate the matters. Even though Incukalns is a state property, in 1997 its management was handed over to AS Latvijas Gaze for a period of 20 years.  As 2017 is approaching, AS Latvijas Gaze, whose 34% of shares are owned by Gazprom, has recently declared that if Latvia wants to retain its ownership, it would have to compensate for the investments it has made in Incukalns during the past 20 years amounting to about 600 million lats (860 million  euros).

Finland, which was endorsing the project, has quietly stepped away from backing the initiative recently.  If the ownership is not regained, Estonia and Lithuania could opt out of the potential construction of a Latvian LNG terminal, as the two states have said they would not cooperate on a project linked to Gazprom.

Estonia

Estonia is a fully autonomous electricity producer, the country stands out from the other two Baltic States because of its use of oil shale as a fuel for electricity and heat production. Eighty (80)  percent of world’s oil shale is mined in Estonia.  In 2009, this source accounted for 82 per cent of Estonia’s consumption of fuels in power, leading to 77 percent of Estonia’s electricity being generated by burning the shale.  This allowed the country not only to be self sufficient, but enabled it to export a share of its electricity to the neighbouring countries.

Nevertheless, the status quo is likely to change in the near future. The side effects of oil shale burning are high CO2 emissions. Despite the fact that future oil shale burning methods aim to cut down the emissions to that of coal and thus could, in theory, comply with the EC Large Combustion Plant Directive, they would remain very high.

Estonian policy makers also insist on the need to diversify its energy supplies. The aim is to cut down the dependence on oil shale so that its share in the next decade would be reduced to a third of the country’s total energy production. The energy production gap would be compensated by the expansion of gas, wind and nuclear energy. Unfortunately the diversification process may lead to less energy autonomy and more reliance on external suppliers, as there are no readily available substitutes at the moment.

One thing in common

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all energy insecure states, even if the security of gas supplies issue is excluded from the problem. It is not hard to see why the current situation is alarming not only to the Baltic States, but to the wider Europe.

Having briefly sketched the differences between the three Baltic States’ energy sectors, it is important to assess the single most vulnerable link in the energy mix of the three countries which, unfortunately, is unifying.

When it comes to natural gas supply, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are all vulnerable and highly dependent: all three Baltic States are 100 per cent reliant on one natural gas supplier: Russia’s Gazprom.  However, the current developments are likely to increase dependency on Russian energy, including gas.

Estonia will have to reduce its reliance on oil shale in the near future in order to meet the EU 2020 targets. To compensate that, the government is planning, among other things, to shift some of the energy production to gas powered plants.

If that is not done, Estonia will have to begin importing some of its electricity. However, either way the dependency will be increased: even if the share of energy production of gas powered plants increases, the fuel itself–the natural gas–would still be coming from Russia.

As Estonia currently exports electricity to Lithuania and Latvia, the reduction of energy produced from oil shale would directly and indirectly be felt in these countries. The development would be especially uncomfortable to Lithuania, which lately, due to the closure of its Ignalina nuclear power plant, has resorted to electricity imports from the neighbouring countries, including Estonia.

Despite the fact that Lithuania would be capable of replacing energy imports with home produced electricity, the energy security problem would not be addressed. The production would be based in gas powered plants, fuel for them thus being imported from Russia. Given that most of the imported electricity already comes from Russia, increased dependency on the latter country and lack of an alternative supplier–Estonian electricity– would indeed be nerve wrecking for Lithuania.

The Lithuanian government is planning to address the energy security problem by building a new nuclear power station in Visagin as that would become operational by 2020. However, a lack of investor as well and the nuclear accident at Japan, will most likely delay the project’s development and thus would extend and increase Lithuania’s dependency on Russian gas in the following years.

Estonia’s upcoming shift from oil shale to other resources and lack of immediate replacement for Ignalina power plant translates into increased energy insecurity for Latvia. The country’s energy mix is already over shadowed by gas (30 percent as of 2008, well above the 25 percent EU’s average).  Since Latvia is not a self-sufficient electricity producer and thus imports some of its energy from Estonia, it would, directly or indirectly, become more dependent on Russian gas as well.

As can be seen above, there are some efforts to alternate the current state of affairs and minimize energy dependency. However, the above discussed solutions (or lack there of) to change the status quo will translate into the Baltic States’ increased dependency on Russian gas in the near future.

The move to shale gas

Alternative gas sources would not only mean increased energy security for the Baltics, but cheaper gas supplies as well. Even though the natural gas spot price is currently very low, it is not the case that Europe gets its gas cheaply. Indeed, Gazprom currently uses its near monopoly (or total monopoly as regards to the Baltic States) to charge premium for its gas.

While the situation has gotten better during the last years – incidentally because of worldwide natural gas abundance, largely due to shale gas production in the United States –, Gazprom still retains great bargaining power towards Europe and is often not hesitant to use it, as not too distant past has shown.

The benefits for reducing Gazprom’s current monopoly status in the Baltic States would be especially great not only for the insurance of energy security, but for the countries’ economy as well.  Baltic households spend disproportionately high sums of their monthly incomes in paying for utilities and food, the price of the latter being partly influenced by the energy prices. Therefore cheaper energy would mean increased consumer spending which in turn would result in sharper economic growth. For the depressed Baltic economies this scenario of events would be very welcomed.

Political Mood for shale gas production in the Baltic States

On the one hand the shale gas project in the Baltic States is in its infancy – no exploration has been started, let alone production. It is not controversial to claim that the Baltic States will probably be the last ones to begin production, if at all.

Yet, the political mood is very encouraging. When Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs Girts Valdis Kristovskis was on his work visit to the United States in February 2011, he spoke favorably of a collaborative project between the two countries for shale gas extraction in Latvian territory, noting that shale is beneath the entire Latvian territory. Around the same time the Latvian president Valdis Zatlers, when visiting the United States, invited the energy company DTE Energy to begin shale gas exploration in Latvia.

The push for shale gas is even bigger in the neighboring Lithuania. Fuelled by the promising preliminary data on technically recoverable shale gas resources in the country, Lithuanian Energy Minister Arvydas Sekmokas urged the government “to take immediate steps to make shale gas extraction in Lithuania a reality” and noted that the country could extract $30 billion worth of gas in the near future.

During the recent visit to Lithuania, the US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton said that the United States strongly supports Lithuanian drive for energy independence and the two countries pledged in a joint statement to cooperate on shale gas development. Furthermore, Sekmokas has recently revealed that he has had talks with an undisclosed US energy company about prospective shale gas production in Lithuania.

Estonia is so far the only country in the Baltic States that is quiet about its plans in relation to shale gas. This has to do with the fact that Estonia is not consuming a lot of natural gas and can largely satisfy its energy needs by relying on oil shale.

Estonia aside, it can be glimpsed that the other two Baltic States – Latvia and Lithuania – are very eager to exploit their potential shale gas resource, thus increasing the energy independence and relying less on Gazprom.

Conclusion

Shale gas is a game changer for both Europe and the Baltic States. The shale gas revolution that began in the United States has contributed, together with the global economic downturn, to worldwide natural gas price drop and has made the gas suppliers self conscious about the future.

The fact that there is now gas abundance, coupled with the possibility of some European countries themselves becoming shale gas producers, is threatening the position of current European energy market dominating gas suppliers like Russia’s Gazprom.

Even if shale gas production does remain a US venture, it will still mean that market principles in Europe will be reinforced and that the continent will be able to choose between conventional pipeline gas, liquefied natural gas or possibly even unconventional US natural gas.

If shale gas production begin seven in one European country–and all signs lead us to think that there will beat least one (Poland)–, the European energy market will become even stronger and more secure.

For the Baltic States this would be a dream Come true given that they are 100 percent reliant not only on gas imports, but on one gas supplier. As European and world energy consumption will eventually rise and the use of nuclear power will fade, shale gas is the perfect candidate to fill the role as a bridge fuel between highly dangerous energy resources like nuclear and highly polluting ones like coal on the one hand and environmentally friendly renewable energy sources on the other.

Shale gas production in Europe will not only mean more energy security, but will result in cheaper energy prices for the continent thus helping to fuel the currently sluggish economic recovery.

For the Baltic countries that were hit hardest by the global economic down turn this will be specially welcome news. That said it is unclear whether shale gas production in Europe will commence anytime soon as there are still many hurdles to over come. The shale gas exploration is just beginning and judging by the US experience it does take years before production can begin.

Yet, Europe does not have to go through the gas drilling technique development stage as the US has already done that. Furthermore, if environmental risks are addressed in the EU directives and the gas industry is subject to strict regulation, shale gas production should not become a public issue either.

Ultimately, it does not matter whether shale gas production will commence in Europe or not as it has already changed the EU energy market and will continue to do so in a foreseeable future. Because even if the US shale gas production in the short term does not address some of the energy security concerns of Europe, especially those of the Baltic States, it will somewhat reinforce them market principles  and should contribute to low gas prices in the medium term. If the Baltic States are integrated into a common European energy market soon, there is no rush to commence shale gas production in the continent.

In short, the existence of shale gas has already revolutionized the European and Baltic energy markets and will continue contributing to the continent’s energy security in the future, with or with out shale gas production actually taking place in Europe.

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Mar 30

 

India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp and U.S. oil company ConocoPhillips signed a pact on Friday to explore and develop shale gas assets and look for opportunities in deepwater exploration.

The agreement is for sharing technical expertise on shale gas explorations, but ONGC and ConocoPhillips could also jointly bid for shale gas assets overseas, the leading Indian oil and gas producer’s chairman Sudhir Vasudeva told reporters.

India may launch the first shale gas licensing round by the end of next year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said last week, after the government pushed back plans to unveil a policy on exploration of unconventional gas resources trapped in rocks.

“India has a lot of potential in shale gas. We want to exploit that with the technical expertise of ConocoPhillips,” ONGC’s Vasudeva said, adding the two companies will also explore opportunities in the U.S. and other countries.

ONGC does not see any financial benefit from the agreement in the near future, he said.

A lack of a policy framework and resource estimates have led to Indian companies turning their focus to shale gas assets overseas.

Another Indian oil and gas producer, Oil India Ltd is in talks with U.S.-based companies, including ConocoPhillips, to buy stake in shale gas assets in the U.S, the Indian state-run company’s finance chief said in January.

Global energy majors have also been pushing to grab a slice of India’s oil and gas reserves and gain exposure to surging demand in Asia’s third-largest economy.

BP paid $7.2 billion last year to acquire 30 percent stake in 23 oil and gas blocks owned by India’s Reliance Industries.

UK-listed miner Vedanta Resources has also bought a controlling stake in explorer Cairn India in a deal valued around $6 billion.

India, the world’s fourth-largest oil importer, meets about 80 percent of its crude needs through overseas purchases. It is scouting for oil and gas assets abroad to meet demand in a fast-growing economy, and to feed its expanding refining capacity.

ONGC, which has been investing heavily to maintain output from its old fields, has said it aims to raise its crude oil production by 15 percent to 28 million tonnes, or 560,000 barrels per day (bpd), by March 2014.

Source: Reuters

Jan 24

 

President Barack Obama on Tuesday pledged support for the U.S. shale gas boom, but said government must focus on safe development of the energy resource.

In his State of the Union address, Obama called for government to develop a roadmap for responsible shale gas production and said his administration would move forward with “common-sense” new rules to make sure drillers protect the public.

“America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk,” Obama said.

Obama’s proposals on natural gas were similar to previous administration comments, and would do little to satisfy oil and gas industry backers who argue that the federal government needs to stay out of the way of burgeoning shale development.

Some industry groups had hoped Obama might streamline government oversight or offer specific plans to increase access for oil and gas drilling.

Instead, Obama pressed again for ending tax breaks for the oil and gas industry in his speech, something he has pushed for repeatedly without success.

The American Petroleum Institute, the top oil and gas lobbying group, said the policies Obama promoted in his speech are at odds with expanding energy output.

“It’s a contradiction because he calls for further regulation that will slow down the production of energy and then increasing costs by raising taxes,” said the institute’s president, Jack Gerard.

Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management in Rye, New Hampshire, said Obama avoided tackling key issues regarding natural gas, such as switching to using more gas in transportation.

“He was basically using his discussion on energy to deflect away from his critics versus really doing major changes with the U.S. energy sector and natural gas,” Jarvis said.

Improvements in drilling techniques have transformed the U.S. energy landscape in recent years by unlocking the country’s immense shale oil and gas reserves.

But the drilling boom has raised concerns about the safety of natural gas extraction techniques like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which environmentalists say could pollute water supplies.

Still, with fracking mostly exempt from federal oversight and most shale gas production occurring on private lands, the Obama administration is limited in its authority over the practice.

Obama said the administration would move forward with rules that would require companies to disclose chemicals used during the fracking process on public lands.

In wide-ranging comments about the energy industry, Obama also said he would direct his administration to open 75 percent of the country’s potential offshore oil and gas resources to drilling.

This proposal would be carried out in the latest offshore drilling plan released by the Interior Department in November.

Obama strongly defended his record in investing in renewable energy.

The high profile collapse of solar-panel maker Solyndra last year – after the company received $535 million in loan aid from the administration – led critics to argue that government should not be in the business of backing energy companies.

“Some technologies don’t pan out; some companies fail,” Obama said. “But I will not walk away from the promise of clean energy … I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here.”

Though Congress failed to move on a proposal he put forward last year to set a target for power plants to produce mostly clean electricity by 2035, Obama said the administration would establish zones to develop 10 gigawatts of solar and wind power projects on public lands.

In addition, the Defence Department will purchase one gigawatt of renewable energy, with the Navy purchasing enough capacity to power a quarter of a million homes a year.

Source: Reuters

 

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Dec 15

 

In a week where shale gas = job creation stories, Deloitte has issued a report which says opinion on shale gas is positive, particularly when it comes to employment:

A majority of Americans think developing natural gas by tapping shale formations offers greater rewards than it does risks, including those associated with hydraulic fracturing, according to a survey conducted by the Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions. Moreover, 8 in 10 respondents link natural gas with job creation and economic revival.

Specifically, 83 percent of respondents agree that natural gas development can stimulate job growth in the United States, while 79 percent believe the development of natural gas resources can help revitalize the economies of the states and communities where shale gas is located.

Further, the survey indicates that the public associates jobs in the natural gas industry with good pay. More than half (56 percent) of respondents in areas where shale gas development is planned or underway believe that jobs producing gas from shale formations command a “much” or “somewhat” higher pay grade than the average in their communities. The number jumps to 62 percent when looking at relatively mature shale regions like Texas.

Peter Robertson, an independent senior adviser for oil and gas at Deloitte, points out that the role of natural gas in job creation and economic revival is only going to grow as production of shale gas ramps up. Citing a separate Deloitte research project, Robertson points out that “shale gas made up a small share of domestic natural gas production in 2005, but has surged since then – and in 2010 made up 20 percent of what is produced domestically. By 2030, the portion could be close to 50 percent.”

Shale benefits seen to outweigh risks

Only 2 in 10 respondents (19 percent) feel the risks of developing shale gas “somewhat” or “far” outweigh the benefits; 58 percent believe the benefits outweigh the risks; and almost 25 percent are unsure.

Moreover, a clear majority of respondents (58 percent) in areas where shale development is underway or planned would recommend that their family and friends lease their land to a shale gas developer. In fact, 7 in 10 survey respondents (71 percent) in established shale areas like Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas would advise family or friends to lease their land to a natural gas developer.

The survey consisted of 1,694 online interviews conducted in November 2011 with adults age 21 to 74 and examined three different audience segments: residents of areas where shale gas development is an established phenomenon, specificallyTexas, Louisiana and Arkansas (537 respondents); residents of areas where shale is a newer phenomenon, specifically New York (89 respondents in New York City and 162 in western New York State) and Pennsylvania (243 respondents); and finally, the survey canvassed an additional 663 respondents in the United States nationally.

“The survey findings are especially interesting among the more mature shale areas where people are long-accustomed to oil and gas development,” said Gary Adams, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, and leader of Deloitte’s oil and gas practice. “There, 8 in 10 respondents who currently do, or ever have, leased their land to a natural gas developer (83 percent) would do so again.”

As Adams points out, in contrast, these numbers are lower in newer shale regions – indicating a higher level of discomfort with the processes and technologies involved in shale gas development. “In Pennsylvania and New York, where people are not as used to oil and gas development, a more modest majority of respondents (52 percent) would advise family or friends to lease their land to a natural gas developer. Similarly, a slimmer majority of respondents who currently do, or ever have, leased their land to a natural gas developer (53 percent) would do so again,” Adams adds

Shale seen to improve energy independence and air quality

The survey also indicates that shale gas could play an increasingly important role in making America more energy independent: Respondents with at least some degree of familiarity with shale gas development view energy independence as the single most important benefit of shale – ahead of all other benefits, including: boosting the national economy, job creation, cleaner air, and boosting local economies. And a near majority (47 percent) of national respondents believes shale is “extremely” or “very” impactful on energy independence.

In addition, survey respondents believe shale gas development could improve air quality: 6 in 10 national respondents (62 percent) with at least some degree of familiarity with shale gas development associated the word “clean” with natural gas – making it the top association over other words such as: reliable (47 percent), domestic (41 percent), affordable (40 percent) and abundant (38 percent). Finally, 88 percent of all national respondents think it is at least “somewhat believable” to claim that “using natural gas resources to generate electricity can significantly reduce our carbon footprint.”

Strong need for better dialog, more information on shale

Still, the road to increased shale production is likely to be rocky. There is controversy about the environmental impact of shale development and heated rhetoric – all of which was reflected in Deloitte’s survey.

Most notably, respondents are not familiar with the processes involved in shale gas production: 37 percent of national respondents report being “not very” or “not at all” familiar with hydraulic fracturing – and 23 percent “never heard of hydraulic fracturing.”

Nonetheless, a large percentage of the public is aware of the dominant concerns about shale development. 58 percent of national respondents with at least some degree of familiarity with shale gas development are aware of potential water contamination issues and 49 percent know about the potential for surface-land impact issues.

Curiously, while the news media is seen as the primary source of information on shale (much higher than sources like word-of-mouth, non-profits, industry websites, academics and town hall meetings), it is not trusted: 73 percent of respondents nationally get information about shale development from the news media, yet only 17 percent see the media as “extremely” or “very” trustworthy when it comes to providing unbiased coverage of the natural gas industry.

At the same time, respondents in areas where shale gas development is planned or underway indicate that oil and gas production companies need to communicate better. While nearly half (45 percent) believe shale gas producers are “somewhat” transparent and open, just 35 percent believe shale gas companies communicate “extremely” or “very” effectively. Only 34 percent see shale gas companies as “extremely” or “very” trustworthy.

“There’s so much shale activity in so many parts of the country that it’s important to communicate and operate effectively,” said Robertson. “Everything shale gas producers do gets enormously magnified. That’s why they have to get it right every time, on every well drilled. Consistently operating with excellence and communicating effectively with all impacted stakeholders are critical attributes.”

Interestingly, the survey shows that there is faith that the shale development is currently being regulated appropriately: 54 percent of respondents nationally believe that regulation of shale development is “just right” or “evolving, but on the right track.” Approximately 20 percent think there is too much regulation and 16 percent think there is too little regulation. Ten percent are not sure.

Source: Deloitte

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Nov 03

 

With talk of Greece holding the future of the world’s economy in its hand and the U.S. looking for a solution to global financial problems, Bloomberg says shale gas could reignite the American economy – and therefore have a huge global impact on world finances.  It’s a long piece – but it’s worth a read:

In late 1998, Chesapeake Energy Corp., an independent natural-gas producer based in Oklahoma City, exemplified an industry in decline.

The company’s stock price had fallen over two years from above $34 a share to 75 cents. Its market value tumbled 93 percent, to $72 million. “They’re running up a down escalator,” Michael Spohn, an analyst at Petroleum Research Group, said.

When Aubrey K. McClendon, Chesapeake’s chief executive officer and co-founder, announced he might sell the company, there was little interest, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Nov. 7 edition.

Falling gas prices had reduced the value of Chesapeake’s reserves from $2.1 billion to $661 million. “We’d had higher highs than others in the industry; then we had lower lows,” McClendon said with characteristic insouciance. “In this business, it’s good to have a short memory and thick skin.”

Good thing he didn’t sell. Thirteen years later, Chesapeake’s market value exceeds $18 billion. Its shares sell for about $28, up 8 percent this year. The company’s 120-acre neo-Georgian corporate campus bustles with construction crews building new office space. Its workforce has grown 30 percent in a year, to 12,200, and its recruiters have 700 jobs to fill. “The United States,” McClendon boasts, “has the capacity to become the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”

A tall man who wears his wavy silver hair long by CEO standards, McClendon, 52, exudes the confidence of someone who’s certain he’s seen the future. Exploitation of newly accessible supplies of gas embedded in layers of what’s known as shale rock, he predicts, will help revive domestic manufacturing and change the terms of debate about global warming. “It’s a new industrial renaissance,” he said.

Diverting Billions

You’d expect that kind of exuberance from a man with everything to gain from seeing his vision made real, but it’s not just independent drillers such as Chesapeake that are talking big. ConocoPhillips is investing $2 billion in gas in 2011, up from $500 million two years ago.

Other multi-national oil giants, such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, are likewise diverting billions into domestic shale gas projects. “We believe so strongly in natural gas that it’s a major portion of our portfolio,” Conoco CEO James J. Mulva told an audience at the Detroit Economic Club in September.

Last month, the potential for U.S. shale gas spurred Kinder Morgan to acquire rival pipeline operator El Paso Corp. for $21.1 billion. It also drove the proposed $4.4 billion purchase of Brigham Exploration Co. by Norway’s Statoil ASA.

Cheaper Gas

Encouraged by the availability of inexpensive and cleaner domestic gas, some electric utilities are replacing their coal- burning capacity with gas-fired units. Energy-intensive manufacturers of chemicals, plastics, and steel are beginning to bring home operations that they exported years ago.

“We believe natural gas must be part of any discussion on strengthening our country’s long-term economic health,” Mulva said in Detroit. “It should also be part of any discussion on improving energy security, protecting the environment, and, yes, creating jobs.”

On the economic potential of the nascent shale revolution, even some career environmentalists sound impressed, if cautious. “This thing is a potential game-changer,” said Fred Krupp, president of the New York-based Environmental Defense Fund (EDF). Shale production in the U.S. has increased from practically nothing in 2000 to more than 13 billion cubic feet per day, or about 30 percent of the country’s natural-gas supply.

Cleaner Than Coal

That proportion is heading toward 50 percent in coming years. The U.S. passed Russia in 2009 to become the world’s largest producer of natural gas. An Energy Dept. advisory panel on which Krupp sits estimated in August that more than 200,000 jobs, both direct and indirect, “have been created over the last several years by the development of domestic production of shale gas.”

At a moment of 9.1 percent unemployment nationally, additional decently paid work is just one potential benefit. “Natural gas burns cleaner than coal, emits less in the way of greenhouse gases, and avoids mercury and other pollutants from coal,” Krupp points out. “So this could be win-win, if–and this is a big ‘if’ — we do it the right way.”

Geologists have known for generations that immense, deeply buried shale formations contain copious reserves of methane, or natural gas, which can be burned efficiently to make electricity and run factories. Until recently, however, industry lacked the tools to get at shale gas profitably.

Casing Protects Wells

In the early 2000s, the combination of two existing techniques led to a breakthrough. One method is horizontal drilling. The other is hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” a scary-sounding and controversial process involving the high- pressure pumping of millions of gallons of chemical-laced water deep underground to create cracks in shale rock and release trapped gas.

When in 2007 environmentalists began raising reasonable concerns about fracking, industry executives responded with a dismissive, “Just trust us“ — ensuring that skeptics would trust them less. Just in case concern didn’t turn into panic on its own, the industry for years took the additional step of refusing to disclose the chemicals it uses in fracking.

Lost amid the suspicion and recrimination was a potentially more constructive discussion over improving industry standards for drillers’ concrete-lined steel casing, which, when installed correctly, has successfully insulated wells from drinking water.

Safe and Profitable

Now, though, there’s some surprising good news: Despite all the vituperation on both sides, some people from business and environmental circles are quietly at work in Texas, New York and Washington on guidelines that should ensure a safe, profitable gas revival.

The Environmental Defense Fund, for example, is drafting model state regulations with Southwestern Energy Co., a producer based in Houston. The collaboration is rooted in the recognition that the choice between polluting fossil fuels and pristine alternatives is not simple. For the foreseeable future, the U.S. has to burn a whole lot of something to produce power.

The nation now gets 45 percent of its electricity from coal, 25 percent from natural gas, 20 percent from nuclear, 7 percent from hydro, and 2 percent from wind. Solar barely registers. With current technology, wind and solar probably can’t reach into double digits, let alone bear the bulk of the load.

Bridge Fuel

If you want to continue to turn on the lights with the flip of a switch, the real short-term choice is whether to stick with the current mix or replace a substantial amount of coal capacity with less dirty natural gas.

John Podesta, former chief of staff to ex-President Bill Clinton, argues for the latter option. Now head of the Center for American Progress in Washington, Podesta writes on the liberal think tank’s website that natural gas can serve “as a bridge fuel to a 21st century energy economy that relies on efficiency, renewable sources, and low-carbon fossil fuels.” Exploring where that bridge will lead should be one of the country’s most important economic priorities.

Like petroleum, natural gas is a hydrocarbon, a product of decomposed organic material that simmered underground for hundreds of millions of years. Simple in structure–one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms–gas has a convoluted history in the U.S.

In the 1970s, federal price restrictions contributed to underproduction and shortages, leading to wintertime shutdowns of Midwestern schools and factories. Utility executives and consumers came to view natural gas as unreliable.

Attractive Alternative

A titanic political fight during the Carter Administration ended in a bizarre compromise: price deregulation combined with restrictions on burning gas to generate electricity. (The coal industry, it should be noted, sponsors a long-established and adroit K Street lobby.) By the 1990s, the limits on using natural gas for power had been eased, and new turbine technology made gas an attractive alternative to coal.

Furious construction of gas-fired power plants ensued, only to be followed by dismay: Gas supplies were not expanding apace. At the turn of the 21st century, some natural-gas basins were nearly tapped out, and once again many utilities, homeowners, and energy-intensive manufacturers dismissed domestic gas as a sucker’s bet.

It might have stayed that way if not for the stubbornness of a Texan named George P. Mitchell. The son of an immigrant Greek goat herder, Mitchell worked his way through Texas A&M University in the late 1930s waiting tables and repairing clothes for students.

Mitchell’s Influence

After World War II, he went into the oil and gas business in Houston, working from a tiny office above a drugstore. All through the ‘80s, Mitchell pondered geological studies showing that gas could be found not only in conventional reservoirs but also in deeper, denser “unconventional” shale formations.

Shale is where gas is actually created. Energy men call it “the kitchen,” where hydrocarbons “cook,” and where large amounts of gas remains trapped. Mitchell wondered: Why not drill all the way down to the kitchen? His exploration company probed the Barnett Shale, a slab sprawling 7,000 feet beneath Dallas and Fort Worth. Competitors scoffed.

“We were running low on gas, and I had to find another reservoir somewhere,” Mitchell, now 92, told Bloomberg News. “So I said let’s drill a well and see what this thing is about.”

He invested his faith and capital in hydraulic fracturing, which had been introduced in rudimentary form in the late ‘40s. Injected at enormous pressures and in huge volumes, fracking fluid creates narrow cracks in the shale. Sand diffused in the fluid stays behind and props open the cracks, allowing gas to flow out and up through the well.

Horizontal Drilling

“Mitchell Energy,” the industry consultant Daniel Yergin writes in his new book, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, “cracked the code.”

In 2002, after 60 years in the business, George Mitchell decided to cash out. Devon Energy Co., a better-capitalized independent in Oklahoma City, acquired his company for $3.5 billion.

Devon brought to the Barnett a knack for horizontal drilling. Improvements in equipment controls and measurement methods allowed its crews to drill down and then turn the gnawing diamond-tipped bit sideways. Drillers penetrate the shale laterally rather than just vertically. This exposes more of the surface area of the formation to extraction and enables multiple wells to be created from each drill pad.

Shale Stampede

Devon could not keep the field to itself. Rivals rushed in to lease tracts in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. Following geologists’ amazingly precise three-dimensional subterranean maps, the drillers went as far east as the Marcellus Shale, a formation that extends below Western New York State, over into Pennsylvania, and all the way down to West Virginia and Tennessee. Few people outside the industry noticed, but a shale stampede was under way.

After almost selling his company during the late-’90s doldrums, Aubrey McClendon dramatically switched strategy and wagered Chesapeake’s future on shale. (A few years later, he lost much of his personal fortune during the financial crisis of 2008 before gaining it back.) Today, Chesapeake is the most active driller of new wells in the U.S., with 177 rigs in operation.

It is the country’s second-biggest overall producer of natural gas, behind only ExxonMobil, which announced in late 2009 that it would join the gas rush by buying XTO Energy for $41 billion. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. is the third-largest producer, followed by Devon.

Haynesville Play

McClendon is descended from a prominent Oklahoma oil family, the Kerrs of Kerr-McGee fame. Prospecting is in his DNA. In 2003 he instituted what he called his “land rush plan”: Chesapeake borrowed heavily and bought leases in the Barnett, some of them in built-up parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. At midnight after the jets stopped arriving at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, workers drilled next to the quiet runways. In 2005, McClendon’s geologists discovered gas in a rich shale play in Northwest Louisiana and East Texas called the Haynesville. (Shale projects are commonly referred to as “plays.”)

Also in 2005, Chesapeake paid $2.2 billion for the second- largest gas producer in Appalachia, becoming the biggest presence in the Marcellus play. McClendon, who got his start in the business as a “land man,” or oil and gas lease broker, built a one-of-a-kind database of millions of property records from obscure county courthouses. The digitized trove has allowed Chesapeake to beat rivals to the doorsteps of landowners whose farms or backyards sat atop buried shale gas.

Margin Calls

A runup in gas prices–to nearly $14 per thousand cubic feet in mid-2008–made McClendon look like a genius. A few months later, he seemed less smart when the economy imploded, dragging down the price of energy and of Chesapeake’s stock (which fell from a high above $69 a share in July of that year to $11 in December).

McClendon personally had borrowed against his large individual holdings to buy yet more company stock. When the bottom fell out, he was hit with margin calls that forced him to liquidate a big chunk of his investments.

Like most entrepreneurs in the up-and-down energy business, McClendon takes occasional setbacks in stride. It helps to have a loyal board of directors. In 2009, the Chesapeake board gave the CEO a $100 million pay package. The company also paid him $12 million for a collection of 19th century maps he owned.

Better Than Coal

Why the well-timed company largesse? McClendon, citing pending shareholder litigation over his pay, answers guardedly. He was properly rewarded for his work during 2008, he said, and received an appropriate “retention package” to ensure his remaining as CEO.

As for the maps, he said he had paid out of his own pocket for years to decorate the halls and conference rooms of the company, and it was time for Chesapeake to make him whole. The company denies any impropriety. On Nov. 1, the litigation was settled, and McClendon agreed to rescind the map sale and repay Chesapeake the $12 million, plus interest.

Today, he has assets valued at more than $1 billion, including a 19.2 percent stake in Oklahoma City’s National Basketball Assn. franchise, the Thunder.

Burning natural gas for power, McClendon proudly points out, results in about half the equivalent carbon dioxide emissions of coal. Such observations, however, have not kept him from becoming a target of activists who are trying to shut down fracking — and have succeeded in some places, such as New York State.

Shale Gas Welcomed

Environmentalists, McClendon believes, should feel much more warmly toward him. He readily acknowledges that human activity contributes to global warming. “Why take a chance,” he said, “when we can reduce our carbon emissions through consuming more natural gas and less coal and oil?” It’s in his pecuniary interest to hold that opinion, of course.

Many residents of Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas–places accustomed to oil and gas development–welcomed the “shale gale” and its accompanying jobs, packed cafés, land royalties, and rising local tax revenue. The reaction was far more mixed in New York and Pennsylvania, despite the latter’s history of oil and coal exploration.

In the Northeast, some residents objected to heavy truck traffic and rural vistas marred by towering steel rigs and murky wastewater pools. Even more intense were concerns about the effects of shale drilling on drinking water supplies. Some homeowners complained that after gas operations began, well water started tasting bad and children fell ill.

Industry Defends Fracking

Activists raised questions about whether the chemicals in fracking fluid were contaminating drinking water with benzene, methanol, and other dangerous substances. In 2008, Businessweek published an article by the nonprofit journalism organization ProPublica that identified episodes of water contamination near (although not all definitively caused by) gas activity in seven states: Alabama, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, Texas, and Wyoming.

In 2010, New York stopped issuing permits for fracking to give environmental authorities there time to study the situation.

Hit with pollution lawsuits, Chesapeake and other producers denied that fracking caused water contamination. For one thing, the companies said, the procedure typically takes place a mile or more below drinking water aquifers and is isolated by massive layers of impermeable rock.

According to the industry, drillers had done more than a million frack jobs going back to 1948 without proof of widespread pollution problems. Drillers also pointed to a study of fracking released in 2004 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that supports their position.

Film’s Impact

O.K., environmentalists said, so what chemicals are you mixing into fracking fluid? That’s secret, the industry answered.

“That was a very, very stupid answer,” said Jim Gipson, a spokesman for Chesapeake. “In this country, if you tell people you’re keeping secrets from them, they will naturally assume you are doing something wrong.”

The producers blame the furtiveness on big drilling contractors, companies such as Halliburton Co., that actually devise and inject the frack fluid recipes. The contractors insisted that their recipes were safe, but deserved confidentiality as proprietary trade secrets.

The industry’s conduct fueled protests in New York and Pennsylvania, which adopted as their manifesto Gasland, a documentary that made its official debut in January 2010 at the Sundance Film Festival, went on to air on HBO, and was nominated for an Academy Award. The film memorably showed homeowners near drilling operations lighting their tap water on fire and complaining about contaminated waterways.

Fracking Dangers Overstated

While Gasland raised relevant questions, it overstated the dangers related to drilling shale gas. It suggested rampant water contamination caused by gas operations. In contrast, a study by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released earlier this year found about 20 reported cases of groundwater contamination between 2005 and 2009.

Some of these problems were traced to flawed cement used in well construction, though not to the fracking process itself. Pennsylvania and other states have since toughened drilling construction standards.

Flammable tap water is a real phenomenon in some areas, albeit a rare one. It’s caused by methane seeping into household wells, and it can happen regardless of whether gas drilling is going on nearby. The challenge in tracing the source of methane seepage is that the gas can occur naturally and contaminate water without any industrial activity. (Not that anyone would want an incendiary kitchen faucet, but methane gas in water isn’t toxic, and it evaporates quickly.)

Methane Occurs Naturally

This August, Josh Fox, Gasland’s director, accompanied a woman named Natalie Brant when she testified before a hearing on fracking held by members of the New York State Senate. Brant, whose family lives south of Buffalo, testified that before the state’s moratorium on fracking went into effect, several of her eight children developed headaches and nosebleeds, which she attributed to nearby gas drilling. “We’re constantly worried about our children and if they’re going to come down with cancer or other illnesses because of what they’ve been exposed to,” she said. State environmental officials have said that methane occurs naturally in well water in Brant’s part of the state, and that the gas turned up in other water wells in the area before drilling began.

New Casing System

Chesapeake’s McClendon (whose company wasn’t specifically implicated by Brant) said claims such as Brant’s, compelling though they may seem, aren’t based on hard evidence pointing to hydraulic fracturing. But in a speech in September at a conference in Philadelphia, he acknowledged a series of “limited gas migration incidents in Pennsylvania in the past three years.”

One of those led state regulators to impose a $900,000 fine on Chesapeake for polluting drinking water in Bradford County. “These incidents were not related to fracking,” McClendon said. Instead, they were caused by faulty well casing. “Only a couple dozen homeowners claim to have been affected,” he said. “And more importantly, the industry worked closely with Pennsylvania’s Environmental Protection Dept. officials to implement an updated and customized casing system that has been effective in preventing new cases of gas migration. Problem identified. Problem solved.”

McClendon has a tendency to exacerbate hostilities by belittling his antagonists. At the Philadelphia conference he described protesters’ “vision of the future” in these derisive terms: “We’re cold, it’s dark, and we’re hungry.”

Fracking Chemicals Disclosed

Such condescension notwithstanding, Chesapeake and other natural-gas producers have made concessions. Overcoming some of the concerns of their contractors, Chesapeake and other producers (and the contractors themselves) have begun to disclose the chemical additives used in fracking. An industry- sponsored website, www.fracfocus.org, allows companies voluntarily to report the additives on a well-by-well basis.

“We just decided to do what we should have done from the start,” said Chesapeake’s Gipson. Disclosure isn’t universal yet, but it’s headed in that direction. Arkansas, Texas, and certain other gas-producing states have enacted legal requirements for full disclosure as a condition of continued fracking.

At fracfocus.org, visitors will find that some of the stuff in fracking fluid is definitely not what you’d want in your water glass. Ingredients may include hydrochloric acid (initiates cracks), methanol (inhibits corrosion), glutaraldehyde (kills bacteria), and ethylene glycol (winterizes product).

Accidents Are Rare

Frack fluid is typically 98 percent to 99.5 percent water and sand, with the additives making up the remainder, according to the industry. When the nasty stuff passes by any drinking water supply, it is supposed to be contained securely within at least two layers of steel casing and two layers of heavy-duty cement.

No one disputes that there can be problems if there are flaws in the steel or concrete. The industry said such accidents have been exceedingly rare.

The 2011 MIT study estimates that between 2005 and 2009 there were some 50 incidents nationwide involving a variety of gas drilling mishaps: groundwater contamination, surface spills, offsite disposal issues, air quality problems, and well blowouts. To provide guidance on how to reduce gas drilling risks, the DOE set up its seven-person shale committee.

Sniping, Distrust

The EDF’s Krupp sits on the panel, which is chaired by John M. Deutch, a Director of Central Intelligence during the first Clinton Administration. Other members include the consultant and historian Yergin and several scholars and former regulators.

Despite Krupp’s participation, some environmentalists have written off the DOE committee as an industry-influenced rubber stamp. These critics note that Deutch, a professor at MIT, holds a directorship on the board of Cheniere Energy, a Houston-based liquefied natural-gas company, and formerly served on the board of Schlumberger Ltd., a major drilling contractor.

Even Krupp “has his own connections to the industry,” Dusty Horwitt, senior counsel at the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit in Washington, said in a radio interview in May.

The sniping reflects distrust of the pragmatism Krupp embraces. A 57-year-old lawyer by training and the son of a New Jersey businessman who recycled rags and cardboard, Krupp heads a nonprofit that promotes the use of market forces to protect the environment.

August Report

He regularly takes flak from harder-line activists who oppose his willingness to work with industry. His “industry connection” to shale gas consists of having hired as a senior policy adviser a former employee of the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Assn.

After conferring with the Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council and other nonprofits, Krupp had considerable influence on the 41-page preliminary report the DOE committee released in August.

The paper calls for mandatory state-enforced disclosure of fracking ingredients, stricter standards on conventional air pollution created by shale operations, and additional research on underground methane migration and greenhouse gas releases associated with gas drilling. The panel persuasively explains the need for government inspection of casing and cementing and for more careful disposal of wastewater that comes up from wells.

The report doesn’t address the sticky question of whether the EPA should be given more authority over gas drilling. At present, state agencies regulate the industry. Gas executives grimace when asked about the EPA being given responsibility for permitting their operations.

Fracking’s Exemption

“There’s no evidence the states aren’t doing the job adequately,” said Henry J. Hood, Chesapeake’s senior vice- president and general counsel. “The EPA doesn’t have the manpower or the state-by-state expertise.”

Some environmentalists angrily stress that in 2005 Congress made explicit that another federal law, the Safe Drinking Water Act, doesn’t cover fracking. The exemption certainly reflects the strength of the oil and gas lobby, but with a U.S. House of Representatives controlled by anti-regulatory Republicans, the chances of getting the provision reversed at this point are exactly zero.

Debating it is more of a distraction than anything else and obscures that the EPA has authority to take action against gas drillers and producers that violate the Clean Air and Water Acts. Rather than drawing another bull’s-eye on the EPA’s back, a savvier approach would be to use the DOE report as a blueprint for broadly framed principles that state officials enforce vigorously.

Education Needed

Smart industry executives should accept tough standards as the cost of resolving environmental anxiety. In January 2010, one such corporate leader, Southwestern Energy’s executive vice- president and general counsel, Mark K. Boling, picked up the telephone and called Scott Anderson, the Texas-based EDF gas expert whose industry experience makes him suspect in the eyes of some fellow environmentalists. Southwestern traces its roots to an Arkansas gas concern incorporated in 1929.

Boling, a former partner with the Houston law firm Fulbright & Jaworski, has spent his entire legal career promoting the interests of oil and gas clients. Now, he said in an interview, those interests include demonstrating that fracking is safe. “It’s not enough to say we’ve been fracking for 60 years and no one has proved there’s a problem,” Boling adds. “We’ve got to get out there and educate, encourage better regulation, and pick up our performance in every aspect.”

Working Out Differences

Boling’s phone call to Anderson produced a cautious series of negotiations leading to a 37-page draft state regulatory code for gas operations. “Our idea is not that this should be adopted word for word by any state,” Anderson explains. “This is not one size fits all. Instead, it’s an attempt to show what a responsible producer and a responsible environmental organization consider best practices. It’s something to work toward.”

A dozen other gas producers have been shown the draft, and many offered comments, which have been incorporated, said Anderson. “What we’re working on are mostly very technical underground issues that have technical solutions,” he said. “Fracturing should be safe, if it is done properly. We have a ways to go, but this is a good model for working out our differences.”

The incentives for working out those differences are compelling. In New York, where local opposition to fracking remains strong in some communities, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo inherited a permitting moratorium on the procedure imposed by his predecessor, David A. Paterson. Since taking office in January, Cuomo has encouraged the drafting of more stringent rules.

Jobs at Stake

Released for public comment in September, the proposal would allow fracking subject to rules suited to New York’s geology and regional politics. It would prohibit drilling within 2,000 feet of public drinking water supplies or 500 feet of the state’s 18 primary aquifers. Drilling within the watersheds that provide unfiltered water to New York City and Syracuse would be banned altogether.

Even with these and many other restrictions, the Cuomo plan would make more than 80 percent of the Marcellus Shale within New York viable for drilling, said Joe Martens, the state’s commissioner of environmental conservation. “Our most conservative estimate is that we could add more than 13,000 jobs, direct and indirect,” Martens said. “The higher estimate is nearly 54,000 jobs.”

Fracking’s Economic Benefits

That kind of boost could bring struggling towns in Western Upstate New York back to life. “Right across the border in Pennsylvania,” Martens said, “we can see the jobs and tax revenue that can come with shale gas.” Assuming that New York regulators receive the resources to enforce the proposed toughened rules and effectively protect water supplies, he said, “New Yorkers deserve to get the same [economic] benefits.”

The potential for creating jobs goes beyond the bereft former farm towns of rural New York. Every day, Dow Chemical alone uses the equivalent of 700 million cubic feet of gas and ethane (a natural gas derivative).

That’s as much as all of Australia consumes on a daily basis. More plentiful domestic gas supplies now priced at around $4 per thousand cubic feet have allowed Dow to announce multibillion-dollar expansions of facilities in Louisiana and Texas, according to Executive Vice-President James R. Fitterling.

Impact on Dow

“We expect to employ up to 1,300 workers per project to construct our two new propane dehydrogenation units and a new ethylene cracker,” he told an energy conference in Houston on Sept. 26. “We also expect between 400 and 500 new, long-term Dow jobs to operate and maintain the facilities.” That’s just one chemical company.

Some electric utilities are overcoming their deep-seated uneasiness over natural gas to shift parts of their operations from coal to gas. The switch is inviting because many coal- burning facilities are antiquated, and the country already has large amounts of more modern, underused natural-gas utility capacity (a holdover from overbuilding in the late 1990s.)

The coal industry is fighting fierce rear-guard battles to prevent the move to gas. But a variety of federal antipollution rules taking effect in coming years will provide an additional reason to consider gas. Power companies in 15 states, including California, Florida, and Pennsylvania, have recently announced expanded use of natural gas, often at the expense of coal, according to America’s Natural Gas Alliance, a trade group.

Steady Power

“We need to find a way to take advantage of this historic opportunity to cut back on burning coal, which is the worst energy option,” said the EDF’s Krupp. And he said that as an advocate of more wind- and solar-generated electricity. The best way to exploit renewable power on a large scale is to use it in conjunction with natural-gas plants. Gas-fired generation ensures steady power when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. “Done the right way,” Krupp said, “there’s just a lot to be said for natural gas.”

Source: Bloomberg

Tagged with:
Oct 04

 

Publication of a joint U.S.-Poland report assessing the central European country’s shale gas potential using U.S. Geological Survey methodology and Polish Geological Institute data has been delayed by at least one or two months, the Polish specialist leading the project told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.

The report was expected to have been ready in September.

“Writing the report will likely take another month or two,” said Pawel Poprawa, head of the Petroleum Geology Laboratory at the Polish Geological Institute. “We have to complete one more working session with the U.S. Geological Survey.”

Supportive government policies have prompted companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhilips, Talisman Energy Inc., Marathon Oil Corp., and Nexen Corp. (NYX), as well as Polish government-controlled PKN Orlen SA and PGNiG SA , to buy licenses to explore for the resource in Poland.

“The report will contain estimates of shale gas reserves in Poland, conducted using USGS methodology, as well as a description of the methodology, assumptions and data used,” Poprawa said. “The preparation of archival data, [which] isn’t always compatible with western standards, is taking longer than we expected.”

Poprawa added he didn’t know when the report would be presented to the public.

Outside the U.S., Poland is one of the first countries where companies are making a serious effort to develop shale gas, which Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called the country’s “great chance,” as it could loosen the central European country’s dependence on Russia for its gas, create tens of thousands of jobs, and fill state coffers.

Current preliminary estimates put Poland’s shale gas reserves at 5.3 trillion cubic meters, equal to more than 300 years of the country’s annual gas consumption.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

 

Tagged with:
Sep 27

 

Earlier this month, the Prime Minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and the former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, ushered in what was widely seen – for better and worse – as a new era in the European gas market. On 6 September, at a ceremony outside St Petersburg, they inaugurated the Nord Stream pipeline that takes natural gas directly from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

Bypassing Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic States, the new pipeline is also designed to bypass the disputes that have periodically halted the flow of Russian gas to the rest of Europe.

Even as the new gas started to flow, however, there were the first signs that the European gas market could be in for even more radical reshaping within less than 10 years – in energy terms, a mere twinkling of the eye.

At an economic forum in Poland which happened to coincide with the opening of Nord Stream, the hottest topic – in the conference halls and in the corridors – was of the potential for shale gas, a resource that has quietly altered the balance of energy provision in the United States and helped bring prices there down by a fifth in the past five years.

Initial surveys indicate Poland has enormous reserves of shale gas. One from the US Department of Energy, suggests Poland could have as much as 5.3 trillion cubic metres – equivalent to 300 years’ domestic consumption.

But drilling for shale gas is controversial, especially among environmentalists. Although the technique – which involves extracting the gas by blasting the shale rock layers with high pressure sand, water and chemicals – has been known for a century, it is only in the past decade that it has become economically and technologically viable. But many fear that such “fracking” causes subsidence and contaminates ground water, and it has been banned in France, Switzerland and some US states. The recent discovery of shale gas deposits near Blackpool has also prompted calls for a UK ban.

The Green movement also fears that new, and exploitable, supplies of gas could reduce prices to the point where investment in alternative energy sources, such as wind and wave power does not make economic sense.

In Poland, however, the exploitation of shale gas is well on the way to becoming something of a national mission. Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk (below), has described shale gas as his country’s “great chance” to turn Poland from an energy importer to a major exporter within a generation. And the subtext for Warsaw is that shale gas could not only make Poland into an exporter, but also end its age-old energy dependence on Russia.

With a general election on 9 October, Mr Tusk’s ruling party is already capitalising politically on the issue and has published a four-year programme, which promises, among other things, the creation of a special fund for the proceeds from shale gas, to be used to pay future pensions. It may not be coincidence that this month the Polish energy conglomerate, PGNiG, torched the first flare on one of its rigs at Lubocino in the north of the country. Commercial shale gas production is projected to start in 2014. Not least because his is one of the few governments in Europe to escape the effects of the financial crisis, Mr Tusk’s government is confidently expected to be re-elected.

Not everyone, though, shares Poland’s enthusiasm for shale gas. For obvious reasons, some of the fiercest critics are to be found in Russia, which cannily cast itself among the eco-warriors at the economic forum in Poland, playing down the economic repurcussions.

Poland and Russia have had a difficult relationship, albeit one that has recently undergone a modest improvement. But a Poland that became self-sufficient in gas would take quite a chunk out of Russia’s exports. And if Poland became a net exporter, other markets – Ukraine, the Baltic States and others – could also be lost to Russia. The entire business model of Russia’s mega-conglomerate, Gazprom, would be called into question.

In fact, to an extent this is already happening. Almost without anyone noticing, the European gas market has been changing, and not in Russia’s favour. When Ukraine stopped the flow of Russian gas westward in the winter of 2009, a combination of existing European contingency plans and emergency cobbling-together soon replaced almost 90 per cent of the gas that would have come from Russia. This showed both Russia and Ukraine that their leverage was not what it once was.

There is also more gas on the market. Britain, where the Russia-Ukraine crisis served to highlight the dearth of gas storage, now has a state-of-the art terminal for Liquefied Natural Gas at Milford Haven. And reduced demand for imported gas in the US, thanks to the development of shale gas there, has increased stocks of LNG for delivery elsewhere. Even if Europe is not experiencing an actual gas glut, it is no longer threatened by a shortage.

The opening of Nord Stream adds a further dimension. With the potential to increase reliability of supplies and keep prices down, it can be seen as enhancing Europe’s, and more particularly Germany’s, energy security. This is why Berlin has always been enthusiastic about it. But it can also be seen as part of Russia’s post-Soviet energy strategy – which is why Poland and Ukraine, as transit countries, have been so hostile to it. They feared being left – literally and figuratively – out of the loop, with no transit fees and no leverage. Shale gas comes, for Poland, as a form of salvation.

Whatever reassurance the opening of Nord Stream offers Russia, however, the prospect of competition from Polish gas within Central and Eastern Europe can hardly be welcome either to Gazprom as a company or to Russia. And as Poland dreams of untold wealth and power from gas exports, Russia faces a nightmare combination of lower prices and fewer customers.

So far, the cognoscenti quip, Poland’s shale gas is 10 per cent gas and 90 per cent politics. Even if its reserves are as high as hoped, that balance will not necessarily change. But the politics and configuration of Europe’s gas market will both be unrecognisable from today.

Source: The Independent

 

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Sep 06

 

Both LNG Energy and BNK Petroleum have posted updates on their Polish wells in the past couple of days.

Read the LNG update here

Read the BNK update here

 

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Jul 20

Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest U.S. natural-gas producer since last year’s acquisition of XTO Energy, plans to use hydraulic fracturing in Poland for the first time this year.

Exxon recently completed a handful of exploration wells in Poland and is preparing to pump high-pressure jets of water, sand and chemicals into the holes to release gas from dense shale rock, Jack P. Williams, president of the Irving, Texas- based company’s XTO unit, said in an interview today.

Exxon’s prospects for unconventional gas in places such as Poland and Germany may turn out to be as profitable as the Barnett formation in north Texas, which has wells with some of the biggest returns in the company’s worldwide portfolio, Williams said.

Poland may hold as much as 187 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas, the most of any European nation, the Energy Information Administration said in an April 5 report. The nation has awarded licenses to Exxon, Chevron Corp. and Talisman Energy Inc. to explore for gas trapped in shale- rock formations.

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has been criticized by some environmental groups and politicians who say it may contaminate drinking water supplies. France outlawed the technique on July 1, the first nation to do so.

Exxon Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said in May that the company was planning an advertising campaign to defend fracking from “casual statements about risk that simply are not backed up by facts.” The company also wants to preserve existing rules that let U.S. states, not the federal government, oversee regulation of the drilling method.

Log Results

XTO plans to drill 40,000 wells worldwide and more than double gas production during the next decade, said Williams, whose previous assignments for Exxon included overseeing oil production in Alaska.

Fracking the wells in Poland will enable engineers to estimate the size of the discovery, he said in the interview at XTO’s Fort Worth, Texas office. So far, they’ve been evaluating pressure data and other geological characteristics, known as logs.

“The log results look fine, they look encouraging,” Williams said. “Until you get in there and frack and get some performance results, you don’t know” how much gas is present.

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