Jan 25

International Shale Gas Propels U.S. Technology (and Profits)

By Curve shale gas No Comments »

Seeking Alpha contributor Kent Moors published a very informative article on shale gas today:

Last week, there was a meeting on shale gas that was standing room only. That’s hardly major news these days, as producers, consumers, environmentalists, analysts, regulators, and, oh yes, investors all focus upon the new major player in the energy market.

Except this meeting took place in The City – London’s financial district.

This may come as a surprise. After all, the way the European Union structures its energy pricing makes it more difficult for companies to make a profit.

On the other hand, rising dependence on imported gas (especially from Russia) does not sit well with Brussels.

Domestic shale gas, therefore, is increasingly regarded as the solution.

It will not eliminate the need for imports. But it may well allow Europe to renegotiate terms on pipeline contracts. And that’s more than enough to accelerate the interest in shale gas.

Gas in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia…

Now, the U.K. itself has some possible shale plays, but that nation has barely even begun to estimate the possibilities.

Elsewhere in Europe, the development has advanced beyond the discussion stage. Production is underway in Sweden (Alum), Hungary (Makó Trough, Szolnok), Austria (the Vienna Basin),and Germany (Lower Saxony).

But the real breakthroughs are likely to come from five major plays in Poland, three in France, and Ukraine – where there may actually be more shale gas potential than the rest of Europe combined.

This is taking place elsewhere, too. Geologists tell us there is more shale in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries than anywhere else in the world.

Saudi Arabia had ignored its natural gas until recently. Now, that kingdom is involved in an energetic pursuit of both freestanding gas and shale.

In addition to the Saudis, substantial shale gas is expected elsewhere in the Middle East – especially Syria, Iraq and Jordan.

I have already talked to a delegation from Morocco on their oil and gas shale opportunities (“Shale Gas Initiative Brings Morocco to My Doorstep,” December 13), and Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya have high prospects, as well.

However, the main global target these days is China.

There, the government has already committed to emphasizing gas as the future for electricity production. The attempt is to wean the country from its reliance on polluting, low-quality coal as fuel for power generation.

The Global Leader in Shale

Wherever you are in the world, the primary advantage in the development of shale gas is its ability to satisfy a larger portion of domestic energy requirements from local or regional production. Natural gas is also a rising source for the industrial and petrochemical applications that are essential for economic development.

The downside, of course, remains the environmental impact and water quality considerations.

Hydraulic fracking is the technology used to break open the rock and release the gas, and it employs large amounts of water. That, coupled with the chemicals used in the process, result in a fear of releasing toxic substances in flowback.

The U.S. is the global leader in shale gas (and oil) technology – both in extraction and in addressing the environmental consequences.

There are more than two dozen producing shale gas basins in the American market, along with several additional huge plays in Canada.

In response to the explosion of international interest in shale gas, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) launched the Global Shale Gas Initiative (GSGI) in April 2010.

The organization seeks to provide expertise and advice to developing countries worldwide on the exploitation of shale gas and its economic, policy, and market ramifications.

One of the reasons for the GSGI is the opportunity it presents American companies to profit from shale gas development elsewhere in the world.

Certainly, producers are interested…

Who’s Positioned to Profit

In addition to those leading the shale gas production list – such as Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE:CHK) – major oil companies have used M&A to move into the sector.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) acquired XTO, and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) absorbed Atlas Resources to target shale gas. XOM has an immediate reason, since it is already involved in several European shale plays.

Others, such as Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), Total (NYSE:TOT), Statoil (NYSE:STO), as well as the Chinese majors CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE:CEO) and Sinopec (NYSE:SHI), are farming into already-producing basins or joint venturing with experienced major producers.

There are certainly opportunities for the investor to make some profit for what the operators are doing. Yet the main advantage may well come from the technical side.

Here, the current leaders in shale gas applications remain the largest oilfield service (OFS) companies: Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), owner of the patent on the primary frac technique, and Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB), the worldwide leader in OFS.

The most significant potential for investor interest will be with those companies developing improved drilling techniques, non-chemical fracking processes, and larger-horsepower pumping equipment. Each of these categories becomes more essential as the number of shale gas wells grows – bringing renewed environmental concerns right along with it.

It has been less than a decade since the combination of horizontal drilling and fracking made the exploitation of shale gas profitable. In the interim, an initial stage of technical improvements has reduced the cost of production.

Another stage of improvements is now necessary, both to address the declining pricing of gas in the U.S. market (resulting from the rapidly increasing volume coming from shale development) and the need to make the process safer for the environment.

Currently, a number of small companies are rising to the challenge with advances in equipment, pumping techniques, and water treatment. This is going to be the next great example of the entrepreneurial spirit.

And it will receive a major boost from what is now happening elsewhere in the world.

Source: Kent Moors, Seeking Alpha

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Feb 09

Unconventional gas gaining momentum worldwide

By Trevor J. Murphy shale gas in Europe No Comments »

Developments in the US and Australian unconventional gas sectors have grabbed the headline in recent years, but new regions are about to step into the limelight

Unconventional gas has driven some of the biggest energy news stories in North America and Australia in recent years as production ramps up and companies look to build positions in this long-term growth play. There remain many growth opportunities in these regions and, despite the slowdown driven by the market turmoil over the past 18 months, unconventional gas remains an attractive long-term investment. Meanwhile, outside North America and Australia, momentum is also building and these new regions could create the headlines of the future.

The dramatic rise in shale-gas production in the US, following tight-gas and coal-bed methane (CBM) production growth, has demonstrated the scale of the effect unconventional gas can have on even the very largest gas market. Unconventional gas production in the US Lower 48 has risen from 33% of the total output in 2000 to 59% today, and this is expected to rise to 73% in 2020. North America now has the potential to be essentially self-sufficient in gas over the next decade or more, which not only has significant implications for the US’ LNG-import requirements, but will also have a knock-on affect on other gas markets.

The effect of unconventional gas on the market in eastern Australian has been just as dramatic and Queensland’s prolific coal seams have proved a reliable source of gas even at prices below $3/’000 cubic feet. As a result, long-held plans for pipeline imports from Papua New Guinea have been cancelled and projects to export large volumes of CBM as LNG are moving forward – 10 or more LNG trains are under consideration.

The promise of large resource volumes and long-term growth is an attractive mix. Companies with no, or limited, previous exposure to unconventional gas, such as BG, Petronas and StatoilHydro, have built substantial positions in a relatively short period of time. Additionally, others such as Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP have added to their positions over the last 18 months.

For companies looking to gain a position, the upheaval in financial markets is providing an opportunity, as the independents that have been the engine of unconventional-gas growth seek partners to help fund their plans. As a result, new partnerships are emerging such as StatoilHydro with Chesapeake and Eni with QuickSilver in the US, and Shell with Arrow in Australia.

There remains much to do in North America and eastern Australia, but attention has also turned to the next areas for potential unconventional gas production. Positive long-term gas-market conditions are driving interest, most notably in Europe, India, China and southeast Asia. Companies from the very largest down to new start-ups are hunting for the next Barnett Shale, Pinedale Anticline or San Juan basin. Areas with good potential for tight gas, shale gas and CBM have been identified across these regions, but many questions still remain including:

• Where are the sub-surface conditions right for commercial production?
• How do you gain access to the land, both in terms of licensing and then physical access?
• Can you access suitable low-cost equipment and resources to run an efficient, long-term drilling campaign over a wide area?
• Are the fiscal terms sufficiently attractive to support commercial development?
• Are there pipelines to deliver the gas to market, and can they be accessed?
• What effect will environmental and regulatory restrictions have? and
• Will the gas price sustain development?
Many of these questions are applicable to conventional gas production, but they become even more important for unconventional gas developments where, for example:
• More drill sites are required;
• Continuous drilling is needed to offset well decline rates;
• Land may be held by incumbent companies, or split between many land owners;
• No suitable supply chain may exist;
• Higher costs mean economics are marginal; or
• The additional environmental challenges, such as water management and surface footprint, can be challenging.

Despite the challenges, unconventional gas production will take off in new areas – the preliminary economics look attractive for many of these emerging plays, with rates of return above 10%. However, there remains much uncertainty as little or no pilot testing has been carried out on them and more work is required by operators to test their viability.

Many of the above ground issues are only just being encountered in these new areas, but in some regions they are already stalling developments. In India, for example, initial progress with licensing was rapid, with three CBM licensing rounds having been completed and a fourth on the way. But progress has been slowed by local demands and gaining access to land. By contrast, initial progress in China was very slow as companies entered protracted negotiations with China United Coalbed Methane, although momentum is now building and the government remains extremely supportive through both targeted regulation and fiscal terms.

In Europe, licences are being acquired across the continent and pilot testing is starting to progress. Issues with accessing land are yet to have a large effect as operations are at a small scale. But if developments progress, this will be a significant challenge because of the strong environmental lobby; an innate conservatism of local communities towards new developments; and diverse land ownership. The limited supply chain in Europe is also being tested even at this early stage and new equipment and expertise will need to develop.

While these issues vary on a play-by-play basis, understanding the above ground risks becomes essential for assessing the real opportunity that unconventional gas presents. As a result, companies need a solid understanding of these risks if they are to successfully drive growth.

As a result of the many uncertainties, it is too early to forecast exactly when unconventional gas will take off in these new areas. But unconventional gas is unlikely to have a substantial effect on regional energy markets outside North America and eastern Australia for more than five years. From the middle of the next decade, however, production in China could begin to make an important impact, particularly if strong government support remains in-place.

In Europe, India and southeast Asia, unconventional gas is unlikely to have a significant effect on regional energy markets for the next decade, but local supplies could ramp up over this period. Beyond this, volumes could increase and play an important role in the supply mix. And other areas should not be overlooked: possible plays are being examined, and in some cases progressed, in Latin America, southern and northern Africa, and the Middle East, for example.

In these new areas, important milestones will signal progress. Initially, these include: successful pilot projects with repeatable flow rates; the announcement of the first commercial projects, however small; continued licensing; and a flow of new pilot projects. After the initial phase, companies will need to demonstrate that they can scale-up developments in a play and this means overcoming land access, supply chain and environmental issues on a much larger scale. For this to occur, continued government support will be essential and positive market fundamentals must remain in place.

If these milestones are met across Asia and Europe, then it could be these regions generating the unconventional-gas headlines of the future.

By Rhodri Thomas for Petroleum Economist

SOURCE:
Petroleum Economist: “Unconventional gas gaining momentum worldwide”

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Jan 28

Exploring France’s Shale Potential

By Trevor J. Murphy shale gas in Europe No Comments »

Though French energy giant Total recently announced a $2.25 billion joint venture with Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy Corp., the venture isn’t saying much about the potential for shale gas in France.

This particular deal will see Total invest billions of dollars to acquire 25 per cent of Chesapeake’s Barnett Shale assets – a natural gas field in Texas – rather than staying close to home and exploring the rich resources the European country has to offer.

“There is much shale gas in France,” said Francois Laurant, the man in charge of shale gas at Institut Francais du Petrole. “It has been seeping for centuries around the town of Grenoble in midsoutheastern France. But the disputed areas hold black shale in shallower ground than elsewhere in France like the Paris basin.”

Since late 2008, several companies have been seeking permits to explore shale gas prospects in the southern regions of the country. In August 2009, Toreador was granted a contract for the exploitation of the Paris Basin Oil Shale earning the right to develop 649,000 acres (with an additional 153,000 acres pending approval) where an estimated 65 billion barrels of oil are believed to remain in shale plays.

France’s potential – and, undoubtedly Europe’s potential – was further highlighted when oil giants BP, Shell and Statoil began talks of buying Toreador earlier this month (read: Oil giants BP, Shell and Statoil in talks to buy US-based Toreador Resources) in the interest of acquiring its French shale opportunities.

Shale gas is experiencing an unprecedented boom in the United States, but its popularity is pushing companies and entrepreneurs to look beyond US borders for prime investment opportunities. Recently, Vancouver-based Realm Energy publicly threw its hat into the ring for European exploration, concentrating on eight discrete sedimentary basins in seven European countries and submitted applications for oil and gas rights that collectively extend over 1.5 million acres of land.

SOURCE:
Oil & Gas Journal: “Shale Gas Acreage, European Database Draw Interest”
Rigzone: “Toreador Zeroes is on Paris Basin Oil Shale for Future Developments”
Toreador: “Global Activity – France”
Realm: “Realm Energy Makes Aggressive Play for European Shale Gas Deposits”

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Jan 04

European Energy Giant Total Acquires Shale Gas Interests

By ckeddy natural gas, natural gas in Europe, natural gas in the USA No Comments »

Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil producer, agreed with Chesapeake Energy Corp. to acquire 25 percent of its upstream Barnett Shale assets.Total will pay $800 million in cash and up to another $1.45 billion by funding 60 percent of Chesapeake’s share of drilling and other costs in a joint venture. The companies said they also intend to acquire additional acreage in the Barnett Shale under the deal, which is still subject to regulatory approval and expected to close by the end of January.

The Total/Chesapeake joint venture is the second major deal in as many months. In December, Exxon Mobil Corp. said it would acquire Fort Worth’s XTO Energy, also a big player in the Barnett Shale, in a deal valued at $41 billion.

Unconventional gas in the U.S. “has been the biggest, most unexpected surprise in the U.S. and global energy,” Exane BNP Paribas analyst Irene Himona wrote in a recent note. Unconventional gas, including so-called tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane accounts for around 40% of U.S. gas output, she noted.

Total-Chesapeake deal is another sign of growing interest by the world’s largest oil companies in natural gas as oil resources become more difficult to find. European Giants BP (BP.L) and Statoil (STL.OL) have also entered into deal Chesapeake in the past 18 months. Western companies are also looking closer to home for investments, as barriers to investment in resource-rich countries such as Russia, Saudi Arabia limit their options.

Other Sources: RIGZONE

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