Feb 26

“North American players looking at shale gas opportunities in Europe”: The Canadian Press

By Trevor J. Murphy shale gas in Europe No Comments »

The same technology that unleashed a natural gas bonanza in North America over the past decade has the potential to transform the European energy industry.

“A year or two from now, the activity over in Europe is going to be absolutely frenetic, and so you’ve got to get in there early,” said Craig Steinke, executive chairman of junior explorer Realm Energy International (TSXV:RLM).

Realm, which has offices in Vancouver and London, is involved in eight different shale basins in seven European countries, though it doesn’t disclose specifics for competitive reasons.

The likes of ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE:RDS), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVN) have begun to grab stakes in shale formations in Poland, Germany, Hungary, Ukraine and other European countries.

Some may wonder why North American companies would look for shale opportunities across the Atlantic when there are plenty of promising plays in their own backyard.

“In North America as a whole, the lands have been bid up to significantly high prices,” said Steinke.

“If you don’t have the land, you’re on the outside looking in.”

In Europe, energy companies can negotiate directly with government authorities to acquire large, contiguous tracts of land – though it may not be that way for long if activity picks up, said Steinke.

“Realm’s goal is to be an early mover on acquiring the lands. It’s going to put the company in a very advantageous position as the momentum builds,” he said.

“The opportunity won’t be there forever, that’s for certain.”

Shale is a ubiquitous type of sedimentary rock that is as tough as concrete. Freeing natural gas molecules from within the rock is no easy feat as it requires enormous amounts of water, chemicals, sand and, above all, technical know-how.

North America’s shale gas industry has its roots in the Barnett formation in north-central Texas, where energy companies began honing their techniques about 10 years ago.

Since then, horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing have spread to the Marcellus play in New York and Pennsylvania, the Haynesville play in Texas and Louisiana and the Horn River and Montney plays in northeastern British Columbia.

Realm collaborates with U.S. energy services giant Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), which has been active in virtually all of North America’s shale gas plays.

Halliburton has been helping Realm parlay expertise it garnered from North American shale gas plays into European ones, which share many of the same characteristics.

European shale gas is also on the radar of Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM), already a big landholder in the Marcellus and Montney formations.

“We haven’t done any deals yet, but we are looking hard and depending on how things go, we could see an entry into an international opportunity,” Richard Herbert, Talisman’s executive vice-president of exploration, said on a conference call with analysts and reporters earlier this month.

Another reason European shale gas could be attractive is pricing. North America is currently dealing with a glut situation, in which supply is outpacing demand.

European countries are also eager to stop relying on natural gas imports from Russia, which has had a history of suddenly shutting off supplies amid disputes with its neighbours.

It’s going to take several years of work before European shale gas is commercially viable, said Michael Dawson, president of the Canadian Society for Unconventional Natural Gas.

Energy companies already know all the ins-and-outs of North America’s geology because so much conventional oil and gas drilling has taken place there. That’s not the case in Europe, he said.

There also isn’t much there in the way of specialized equipment needed to drill the high-tech wells. So all of that has to be built or transported from elsewhere.

“I think there has to be a realization that while everybody seems to be getting on the bandwagon with shale gas right now, it just doesn’t happen overnight,” said Dawson.

“It’s not a slam dunk that the shale gas potential in Europe is going to be successful.”

- By Lauren Krugel for The Canadian Press

SOURCE:
MSN.ca: “North American players looking at shale gas opportunities in Europe”

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Feb 16

Oil Giants Head to Europe for Shale Gas

By Trevor J. Murphy shale gas in Europe No Comments »

Oil giants and explorers are jumping into the race to search for shale gas potential in Europe and commit to what analysts at Bloomberg are calling a “buoyant market.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co reported this week that Exxon Mobil has secured land in Europe, acquiring shale plays in Germany and Hungary, and has also applied for permits in Poland. Other companies like ConocoPhillips and Chevron are also exploring options in Poland, while Royal Dutch Shell has garnered contracts in Sweden. Other companies such as Vancouver-based Realm Energy have also made recent announcements of their intent to explore Europe’s shale potential (read “Realm Energy Makes Aggressive Play for European Shale Gas Deposits”).

Mark Greenwood, a Sydney-based analyst with JPMorgan, says the success of the US shale plays is driving companies overseas.

“A land-grab has occurred in Europe over the last two years with majors such as Exxon, Conoco, Chevron and Statoil ASA all participating, not willing to miss out as they did in the U.S.,” he says.

The International Energy Agency said in November the world may have an “acute glut” of gas in the next few years because production of so-called unconventional fuel, which includes shale gas, is set to rise 71 percent between 2007 and 2030.

Over the past three years, the development of technology to exploit shale gas and the boom in US shale success has led to major mergers and acquisitions between oil and gas companies, says Bloomberg.

A report by Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd. in the UK said overseas investment by national oil companies doubled from 2008 levels to $26 billion and accounted for 44 percent of spending outside North America.

Another analysis of shale gas done by Allen Brooks of Parks, Paton, Hoepfl & Brown anticipates that this unconventional gas is “likely to present a challenge for the market in 2010.”

SOURCES:
Bloomberg: “Exxon, Chevron ‘Land Grab’ for Europe Shale Gas, JPMorgan says”
Business Week: “Mergers in Oil, Gas Seen ‘Buoyant’ in 2010 by Wood Mackenzie”
Gerson Lehrman Group: “Excellent Analysis of Gas Shales Capabilities; Benefits and Problems for 2010”

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Feb 09

Unconventional gas gaining momentum worldwide

By Trevor J. Murphy shale gas in Europe No Comments »

Developments in the US and Australian unconventional gas sectors have grabbed the headline in recent years, but new regions are about to step into the limelight

Unconventional gas has driven some of the biggest energy news stories in North America and Australia in recent years as production ramps up and companies look to build positions in this long-term growth play. There remain many growth opportunities in these regions and, despite the slowdown driven by the market turmoil over the past 18 months, unconventional gas remains an attractive long-term investment. Meanwhile, outside North America and Australia, momentum is also building and these new regions could create the headlines of the future.

The dramatic rise in shale-gas production in the US, following tight-gas and coal-bed methane (CBM) production growth, has demonstrated the scale of the effect unconventional gas can have on even the very largest gas market. Unconventional gas production in the US Lower 48 has risen from 33% of the total output in 2000 to 59% today, and this is expected to rise to 73% in 2020. North America now has the potential to be essentially self-sufficient in gas over the next decade or more, which not only has significant implications for the US’ LNG-import requirements, but will also have a knock-on affect on other gas markets.

The effect of unconventional gas on the market in eastern Australian has been just as dramatic and Queensland’s prolific coal seams have proved a reliable source of gas even at prices below $3/’000 cubic feet. As a result, long-held plans for pipeline imports from Papua New Guinea have been cancelled and projects to export large volumes of CBM as LNG are moving forward – 10 or more LNG trains are under consideration.

The promise of large resource volumes and long-term growth is an attractive mix. Companies with no, or limited, previous exposure to unconventional gas, such as BG, Petronas and StatoilHydro, have built substantial positions in a relatively short period of time. Additionally, others such as Shell, ConocoPhillips and BP have added to their positions over the last 18 months.

For companies looking to gain a position, the upheaval in financial markets is providing an opportunity, as the independents that have been the engine of unconventional-gas growth seek partners to help fund their plans. As a result, new partnerships are emerging such as StatoilHydro with Chesapeake and Eni with QuickSilver in the US, and Shell with Arrow in Australia.

There remains much to do in North America and eastern Australia, but attention has also turned to the next areas for potential unconventional gas production. Positive long-term gas-market conditions are driving interest, most notably in Europe, India, China and southeast Asia. Companies from the very largest down to new start-ups are hunting for the next Barnett Shale, Pinedale Anticline or San Juan basin. Areas with good potential for tight gas, shale gas and CBM have been identified across these regions, but many questions still remain including:

• Where are the sub-surface conditions right for commercial production?
• How do you gain access to the land, both in terms of licensing and then physical access?
• Can you access suitable low-cost equipment and resources to run an efficient, long-term drilling campaign over a wide area?
• Are the fiscal terms sufficiently attractive to support commercial development?
• Are there pipelines to deliver the gas to market, and can they be accessed?
• What effect will environmental and regulatory restrictions have? and
• Will the gas price sustain development?
Many of these questions are applicable to conventional gas production, but they become even more important for unconventional gas developments where, for example:
• More drill sites are required;
• Continuous drilling is needed to offset well decline rates;
• Land may be held by incumbent companies, or split between many land owners;
• No suitable supply chain may exist;
• Higher costs mean economics are marginal; or
• The additional environmental challenges, such as water management and surface footprint, can be challenging.

Despite the challenges, unconventional gas production will take off in new areas – the preliminary economics look attractive for many of these emerging plays, with rates of return above 10%. However, there remains much uncertainty as little or no pilot testing has been carried out on them and more work is required by operators to test their viability.

Many of the above ground issues are only just being encountered in these new areas, but in some regions they are already stalling developments. In India, for example, initial progress with licensing was rapid, with three CBM licensing rounds having been completed and a fourth on the way. But progress has been slowed by local demands and gaining access to land. By contrast, initial progress in China was very slow as companies entered protracted negotiations with China United Coalbed Methane, although momentum is now building and the government remains extremely supportive through both targeted regulation and fiscal terms.

In Europe, licences are being acquired across the continent and pilot testing is starting to progress. Issues with accessing land are yet to have a large effect as operations are at a small scale. But if developments progress, this will be a significant challenge because of the strong environmental lobby; an innate conservatism of local communities towards new developments; and diverse land ownership. The limited supply chain in Europe is also being tested even at this early stage and new equipment and expertise will need to develop.

While these issues vary on a play-by-play basis, understanding the above ground risks becomes essential for assessing the real opportunity that unconventional gas presents. As a result, companies need a solid understanding of these risks if they are to successfully drive growth.

As a result of the many uncertainties, it is too early to forecast exactly when unconventional gas will take off in these new areas. But unconventional gas is unlikely to have a substantial effect on regional energy markets outside North America and eastern Australia for more than five years. From the middle of the next decade, however, production in China could begin to make an important impact, particularly if strong government support remains in-place.

In Europe, India and southeast Asia, unconventional gas is unlikely to have a significant effect on regional energy markets for the next decade, but local supplies could ramp up over this period. Beyond this, volumes could increase and play an important role in the supply mix. And other areas should not be overlooked: possible plays are being examined, and in some cases progressed, in Latin America, southern and northern Africa, and the Middle East, for example.

In these new areas, important milestones will signal progress. Initially, these include: successful pilot projects with repeatable flow rates; the announcement of the first commercial projects, however small; continued licensing; and a flow of new pilot projects. After the initial phase, companies will need to demonstrate that they can scale-up developments in a play and this means overcoming land access, supply chain and environmental issues on a much larger scale. For this to occur, continued government support will be essential and positive market fundamentals must remain in place.

If these milestones are met across Asia and Europe, then it could be these regions generating the unconventional-gas headlines of the future.

By Rhodri Thomas for Petroleum Economist

SOURCE:
Petroleum Economist: “Unconventional gas gaining momentum worldwide”

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