Aug 17

 

You wouldn’t necessarily think of Edmonton as being a “shale-friendly” zone, so when Edmonton Journal reporter, Gary Lamphier read a document on natural gas extraction recently, he was surprised at what he learned:

It’s been a long time since I bumped into anyone who is even remotely bullish on natural gas, the energy sector’s unloved stepchild.

Roughly two years after the recession ended, natural gas prices remain stuck in the basement, as a tidal wave of new shale gas supplies gluts the U.S., Alberta’s only existing export market.

Result: at the current price of less than $4 US per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in New York, natural gas is roughly 70 per cent below its 2008 high. Likewise, Alberta (AECO) spot prices are mired in the $3.65 (Cdn) range.

Contrast those ugly numbers with U.S. light crude prices — which hit a post-recession peak of $114 US per barrel in April, more than triple the lows of early 2009 — and it’s easy to see why investors continue to prefer oil stocks, despite the recent correction in crude.

So when an unabashedly upbeat report on natural gas by Calgary money manager Josef Schachter landed in my inbox a few days ago, I was intrigued.

Turns out Schachter — a veteran trader who advises clients at Toronto’s Maison Placements on energy issues — makes a compelling case that the bear market in natural gas is coming to an end.

In his view, natural gas prices actually bottomed last fall, and could rebound to the $7 range on the New York Mercantile Exchange by winter, as supply-demand forces come into better balance.

“People focus on production, and the production numbers are a mix of the conventional basin and shale, and shale (supplies) are still rising, as we all know,” he says.

“But as these shale plays reach maturity — like the Barnett (in Texas) and the Haynesville (in Louisiana) — the amount of new production that’s coming on (is offset by) what’s starting to come off. So if you aren’t on a treadmill drilling new wells, you’re going to hit a peak.”

With conventional natural gas output already falling sharply in Wyoming and the Gulf of Mexico, and total well counts down slightly in the Haynesville, that should help to put a floor under prices, Schachter believes.

Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas inventories have fallen below the five-year average while demand continues to rise, as cleaner-burning natural gas steadily displaces coal as a source for electric power generation.

“So you have less inventory, you have a potential production slowdown coming (as shale gas drilling plateaus) and you have demand rising, as shown by the inventory-to-sales ratio,” he says.

Tack on the possibility that gas production in the Gulf could be curtailed this fall as hurricane season gears up, and you have the makings of a more bullish picture for natural gas, Schachter contends.

“But the stronger issue we’re arguing is when you get into the winter of 2011-2012, if we don’t have high inventories and we go into a normal winter, we’ll see prices move back up to $7 on NYMEX and over $5 (Cdn) for AECO. That would be a big change and it would help Western Canada.”

Shale gas producers in the U.S. also face heightened regulatory pressures, as public concern over the potential impact of hydraulic fracturing — or fracking — on public water supplies continues to mount.

The use of fracking — a process whereby water and chemicals are directed under extreme pressure into gas-bearing shale rock, thereby allowing natural gas to flow more freely — has triggered a public backlash in many U.S. states.

In a recent report on the growing U.S. shale gas industry, a panel appointed by U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu called for changes that could boost the industry’s production costs significantly.

If so, that could slow the growth of new U.S. shale gas supplies, which have grown from almost nothing a few years ago to about 30 per cent of total U.S. natural gas production today.

The panel recommended creation of an industry group to encourage producers to measure and report air pollution, minimize water use and improve well casing and cementing. It also called for a national database to provide public information on the impact of fracking.

Although industry players say the use of fracking hasn’t caused any major incidents, critics say the threat to drinking water supplies remains significant.

“Public concerns extend to accidents and failures associated with poor well construction and operation, surface spills, leaks at pits and impoundments, truck traffic, and the cumulative impacts of air pollution, land disturbance and community disruption,” the report states.

“That (threat of tighter regulation on shale gas production) adds to the bullish argument on natural gas,” says Schachter.

“If you have to spend more money making sure that the regulations are met, and you’ve got to inform the government on toxicity levels and check on all the water wells in the area before you drill, and make sure your casing is strong enough and deep enough to get beyond the water table, all of that adds to your operating costs.”

Schachter’s advice? It’s time to get more bullish on natural gas.

He recommends switching out of oil stocks — which he says face more downside ahead as the peak summer driving season ends — and into selected natural gas stocks.

Source: Edmonton Journal

 

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Jul 12

Warsaw, Poland - The rush for shale gas in Poland is attracting some of the world’s biggest energy companies, giving the country hopes of energy security and strengthening ties with the United States.

Recent finds in northern Poland appear to confirm what experts have suspected for years – that Poland has Europe’s largest reserves of shale gas.  The news promises to encourage what has become a feeding frenzy of major gas companies and Polish hopes of energy independence from Russia.

Shale gas is natural gas trapped in shale rock.  In April, a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Poland could have the largest and most accessible shale gas reserves on the continent.  But up to now, no one could be sure Poland had any gas at all.

Recently-drilled wells indicate the gas is there, says Pawel Poprawa of the Polish Geological Institute.  But, he adds, it is still impossible to tell whether or not it will ever be extracted.

“A couple of these wells altogether seem to confirm the concept,” he said.  “Yes, we think there is gas in the formation.  However, we need to figure out if we are able to get it to the surface, and if we do, then it is a question of if it will be commercial.”

Poprawa says it will be several years before anyone knows exactly how much gas Poland has, and at least a decade before large-scale production can begin.  But in the mean time, exploration concessions have been granted to some of the biggest energy companies in the world.

“We have on our market real majors, the biggest companies globally,” he said.  “We have here Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Total – this is kind of unique, really.  This place a couple of years ago was empty.  Now everybody from the world comes here to make their exploration.”

Many of these companies are American, which has sparked the interest of U.S. policy makers.  On his recent visit to Warsaw, U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States is eager to cooperate with Poland in producing shale gas.

“Shale gas is an important opportunity,” the president said.  “We believe that there is the capacity technologically to extract that gas in a way that is entirely safe, and what we want to do is to be able to share our expertise and technology with Poland in a fully transparent and accountable way.”

Agata Hinc, of the Warsaw-based research organization Demos Europa, explains that collaborating on shale gas could also lead to closer political ties between the United States and Poland.

“For American companies it means money,” she said. “But it also means stable international cooperation on important issues that will last longer than two months.”

But when it comes to energy, Poland’s main geopolitical concern lies to the east.  The country has long been dependent on gas from Russia, and Hinc says that for many Poles, independence from their former communist rulers is a major concern.

“Energy security has meant for a very long time, and for some still means, independence from Russian gas here in Poland,” she said.  “This is a very big political issue.  I would not say the younger generation thinks about it that much, but certainly the older generations and our policy makers want to ensure that we are totally independent from our big neighbor”

Shale gas has become controversial in recent years.  Environmentalists claim that during the process of hydraulic extraction – known as “fracking” – gas and other contaminants from the process can seep into the ground water, damaging the environment and posing a health risk.  In the United States, New York State has imposed a moratorium on fracking, and France has forbidden any new exploration.

Spokesman Jacek Winiarski of the Warsaw branch of Greenpeace says companies in Poland need to take the environmental impact into account.

“We know what are the American experiences with drilling and extracting shale gas,” he said.  “It causes water pollution, animal diseases, and other environmental pollution.  We perceive gas as a temporary transition fuel between coal and renewables, so we are not against gas, but gas extracted in a safe way.”

But Hinc explains Poland’s priorities tend to be different from those in the West, and that for now, environmental concerns are likely to take a back seat when faced with the prospect of energy independence.

“In the richest countries in Europe, green groups are very strong because people want to live in a clean environment, which is not the case in Poland, at least not yet,” she said.  “As for now, cheap electricity and energy security are the most important issues.”

Fracking may begin later this summer, and for now, the size of Poland’s shale gas reserves can only be guessed at.  But with 120 new wells planned for the coming years, it appears the eyes of the world will be on Poland for a long time.

 

Source: Voice of America

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May 21
No Emission Levels Found that Constitute Public Health Concern

An air quality study near Marcellus Shale natural gas operations in Bradford, Lycoming, Sullivan and Tioga counties found no emission levels that would pose a public health concern, according to a report released today by the Department of Environmental Protection.
“The results show there are no emission levels that would be of concern to the health of residents living and working near these operations,” DEP Secretary Mike Krancer said. “They are consistent with the results of our air monitoring in southwest and northeast Pennsylvania, the other two areas of the state with the most Marcellus drilling.”
The report notes that the sampling effort, conducted between August and December 2010, was not meant to address potential cumulative impacts.
DEP’s assessment focused on concentrations of volatile organic compounds, including benzene, toluene and xylene, which are typically found in petroleum products. The department also sampled for other pollutants, such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, near natural gas extraction and processing sites.
DEP first conducted background sampling in early August 2010 at the Sones Pond parking lot in Loyalsock State Forest, Sullivan County.
The air quality sampling was conducted the weeks of Aug. 30, Nov. 15 and Dec. 6. An evening sampling event was held Nov. 17. DEP used its mobile laboratories and the equipment was set up downwind of the target sources during early morning and late evening hours.
“This study provides us with additional valuable information as part of our ongoing effort to determine the impact of these operations on air quality, public health and the environment,” Krancer said.
The air monitoring surveys were located next to Talisman Energy’s Thomas Compressor Station in Troy Township, Bradford County; East Energy’s Shaw Compressor Station in Mainesburg Township, Tioga County; East Energy’s Chicken Hawk well south of Mainesburg; and Anadarko Petroleum’s Hagemeyer well in Gamble Township, Lycoming County.
Those surveys detected the main constituents of natural gas—including methane, ethane, propane and butane—as well as low levels of other compounds, such as MtBE, carbon monoxide and methyl mercaptan, the odor-producing compound.
DEP’s sampling did not find concentrations of any compound that is likely to trigger air-related health issues associated with Marcellus Shale drilling activities in the northcentral region.
Results from DEP’s previous air monitoring studies near Marcellus facilities in southwest and northeast Pennsylvania were announced in November 2010 and January 2011, respectively.
To view the report, log onto www.depweb.state.pa.us and click “Regional Resources,” then Northcentral Region and choose the “Community Information” link on the right side of the page.
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Apr 02

“The Saturday Essay” in today’s Wall Street Journal was an exploration of shale gas’ promise, written by Pulitzer Prize winner Daniel Yegrin:

In the early 1980s, George P. Mitchell, a Houston-based independent energy producer, could see that his company was going to run out of natural gas. Almost three decades later, the results of his effort to do something about the problem are transforming America’s energy prospects and the calculations of analysts around the world.

Back in those years, Mr. Mitchell’s company was contracted to deliver a substantial amount of natural gas from Texas to feed a pipeline serving Chicago. But the reserves on which he depended were running down, and it was not at all clear where he could find more gas to replace the depleting supply. Mr. Mitchell had a strong hunch, however, piqued by a geology report that he had read recently.

Perhaps the natural gas that was locked into shale—a dense sedimentary rock—could be freed and made to flow. He was prepared to back up his hunch with investment. The laboratory for his experiment was a sprawling geologic formation called the Barnett Shale around Dallas and Fort Worth. Almost everyone with whom he worked was skeptical, including his own geologists and engineers. “You’re wasting your money,” they told him over the years. But Mr. Mitchell kept at it.

The payoff came a decade and a half later, at the end of the 1990s. Using a specialized version of a technique called hydraulic fracturing (now widely known as “fracking” or “fracing”), his team found an economical way to create or expand fractures in the rock and to get the trapped gas to flow.

Today, in an age that craves innovation in energy, George Mitchell’s breakthrough in the Barnett Shale has opened the door to a potentially profound change in the global energy equation.

Continue reading the full Wall Street Journal article.

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Mar 16

America’s Natural Gas Alliance recently published an article and short video in response to claims made in the movie Gasland.  The ANGA film and article can be found by clicking here.

According to the ANGA, Gasland erroneously identifies the natural gas industry as being responsible for certain environmental contamination.  Among other sources, the ANGA cites reports produced by the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) and the Environmental Protection Agency, which conclude that the natural gas industry is not to blame for the specific events detailed in the movie.

The COGCC Report addresses claims made by the filmmakers about flammable tap water in the state that directly from the film that directly contradict the COGCC’s research and findings.  Their investigation found that the methane in the Colorado tapwater was “biogenic” in nature, meaning it was naturally occurring and that his water well was drilled into a natural gas pocket.

The EPA’s Update on Dunkard Creek summarizes the findings of an investigation that links a 35 mile fish kill to a coal run off, as opposed to Gasland’s attribution to natural gas.

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Feb 10

Ten years ago, few crystal balls foresaw the lightning impact and development of shale gas on the world’s energy scene. In the last 10 years – during which shale gas became commercial in the US – its use has grown from near zero to about 20% of the already enormous US gas stream. Booked shale gas reserves, at present rates of production, may still be onstream 100 years into the future, a figure that will increase if gas begins to approach oil on a price parity basis.

Many likely changes will result from shale gas development. But the most important ones reflect the economic impact of shale gas on global politics and today’s energy producers.

Economic model implications
Let’s start with one of the more subtle changes: that of the economic models used around the world. Although shale deposits are distributed globally and have been so for millions of years, it was US R&D with its entrepreneurial risk-takers that put recoverable shale gas on the mineral inventories of many nations. Hopefully, spreading of the entrepreneurial model will be one of the more lasting effects of the shale gas story.

Traditionally, US capital and know-how migrated in search of raw materials. In the case of shale gas, other countries are inverting that approach and bringing capital here, investing billions in the expertise and reserves of US shale gas companies: Statoil of Norway, CNOOC of China, Mitsui of Japan, Reliance of India, and Total of France, to name a few. It’s hard to imagine they will value the technology that enables the production of this tight gas – yet ignore the competitive economic system that produced the technology. Interestingly, we are even seeing some of this result already in China, where the major state-owned energy companies find themselves in tough competition with each other for limited global resources.

The shale gas impact won’t stop in abstract economics. Developing reserves will help stop the wealth drain and spread prosperity. For example, in the US, as we drill wells and hook up gathering systems, we’ll see investment in exploration, pipelines, storage facilities, conversions of electricity generation to gas, cheaper and cleaner electricity, more competitive US manufacturing, good jobs, royalties to property owners, and a better US balance of payments. These activities will generate concrete real economic growth in the US – and can produce similar results worldwide.

Worldwide political impact of shale gas
The distribution of shale gas is so widespread that locally produced shale gas may become the standard fuel in many places. Traditional gas imports (by pipeline or as LNG) may become incremental sources.

The potential of shale gas implies a loss of political leverage for some sellers. For example, Russia has used threats of interruptions – and actual interruptions – like old-time gunboats, notably with Ukraine, but with other European countries too.

I recently attended a conference on shale gas in Poland on behalf of Mayer, Brown. The Poles share with other Europeans concerns about fracking, water recycling, and environmental issues. They have no tradition of American-style entrepreneurship. What they do have is reliance on Russia’s Gazprom in a power-constrained economy. They want to accelerate the development of their shale gas reserves. This story is repeated many places.

Cartel pricing versus market pricing
Politics aside, shale gas pricing could thwart the once likely coalescing of a Russian-Persian Gulf gas cartel. Gas prices will likely reflect real costs rather than cartel-engineered prices that spike with every political flare-up.

With competitive, market-priced shale gas onstream, the massive international wealth transfers of the last 40 years could retrench. But other developments will affect gas exporters’ global strategy. For example, five years ago the US was building LNG import facilities and signing up long-term cartel suppliers. Today, we are seeing a very likely prospect of US gas exports.

This unexpected development hits global LNG prices three ways: One, US demand no longer supports extreme gas prices. Two, we may compete for LNG customers – or help other nations establish their own production. Three, the economics of gas-to-liquid projects have seemingly been immutably changed. Gas exporting countries will still be suppliers but likely not as they anticipated.

Development of renewables and nuclear power
Because shale gas can be distributed through existing gas facilities, it can decrease the urgency with which some countries pursue solar and wind projects. But these renewables have been supported by global warming concerns and benefited from deliberately high subsidies. So a commitment to renewables is likely to remain even if gas availability is explored and ultimately adopted.

But don’t count the market out: Many countries will have shale gas potential but no country will soon have a functional, unsubsidized renewables industry. In today’s global economy, competitively priced gas can make its own case.

Where nuclear power is used, it has already passed three big tests: A) reduced emissions, B) competitive economics, and C) exaggerated fears of catastrophic results. Where it isn’t being used, the value of those tests has been discounted. I don’t see big changes in today’s nuclear position.

Two potential futures
Looking at a present day oil and gas importing area like Europe, we could focus on a potentially negative outcome: a world divided into many smaller, densely populated countries with state ownership of minerals and no deep-seated entrepreneurial tradition. Such countries may resist the disruptions associated with exploration, production, hydrofracking, building an industrial infra-structure, and so on – just as US coastal state residents often resist offshore oil production – and offshore windmills, for that matter.

Citizens in countries with green politics and economics are already accustomed to choosing favorites and then subsidizing them significantly. Shale gas may open economic options yet still be rejected in favor of commitments to wind and solar capability. In any case, subsidized, vested interests will no doubt fight to hold their favored positions – even at the risk of losing a job-producing, indigenous energy supply and a more prosperous national economy.

But we can also focus on a more positive future, one in which shale gas accomplishes two things: A) it removes a huge area of international economic uncertainty, one in which – for decades – a supply concentration in volatile regions of the globe held many of the cards in basic energy; and B) because low-emission gas power plants are cheaper to build and operate than coal plants, shale gas may permit greater progress in reducing greenhouse gases.

In such a world, the results would be nations economically grounded on safe, reliable, and often domestically produced energy supplies, the fostering of new jobs and opportunities, growing freedom from monopolistic energy pricing, and a cleaner environment.

I think the trend is in favor of the more positive world market economy. But even if the more positive view of the future starts off slowly, few consuming countries will want to extend the forty-year economic drain many have experienced, the dependence on long sea-lanes, and powerlessness in the face of high prices and pressure politics.

There are no guarantees, but in a world with widely distributed shale gas reserves, this potential future is much closer than it was ten years ago.

Source: PennEnergy

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Feb 01

Realm Energy has applied for oil and gas rights in multiple countries throughout Continental Europe. The applications were filed following a rigorous evaluation of high potential shale deposits throughout the continent and, if successful, will permit Realm Energy to bring North American technological advancements in shale gas and oil extraction to Europe.

Realm Energy is now concentrating on eight discrete sedimentary basins in seven European countries and submitted applications for oil and gas rights that collectively extend over 1.5 million acres of land. Realm Energy received confirmation of receipt from government bodies that its applications are under active consideration.

“After months of rigorous evaluation, confirmation that our applications are under active consideration is an important step toward our goal of acquiring oil and gas rights over significant lands containing high-potential shale formations,” said Craig Steinke, Executive Chairman. “We stand behind our extensive evaluation process and strongly believe that Realm Energy is positioned to maximize the possibility of favorable outcomes from these applications.”

SOURCE:  Scandinavian Oil-Gas Magazine

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Jan 29

The exponential potential for shale gas exploration overseas and the shale boom in the United States is forcing one of Europe’s gas giants to re-evaluate what was once considered to be a largely ambitious gas extraction project in the Arctic.

Gazprom, Russia’s biggest gas company and Europe’s biggest gas supplier, said this week they would have to reassess its plan to develop the 3.8 trillion cubic meter Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea.  Together with partners Statoil and Total, Gazprom has planned to send as much as 90 per cent of Shtokman’s extracted natural gas to the North America, but the company admits that alternative gas suppliers and quickly developing markets for shale gas in the US and abroad is putting Shtokman development plans in jeopardy.

Andrew Neff, an energy analyst at HIS Global Insight says shale gas is “playing havoc” with Gazprom’s prices and projects.

“The potential spread of the shale gas production revolution to Europe, which is believed to have significant untapped reserves of its own, would clearly have a profound impact on Gazprom’s production and marketing strategy,” he told The Guardian.

In an interview with Russia Today television in December, a Gazprom spokesman called shale gas “a joke” and dismissed concerns that a growth in the production of shale gas would pose a threat to the company’s foreign sales.

But the reassessment of the Shtokman fields demonstrates that Gazprom is now taking the threat of shale gas and energy independence very seriously.

Over the past two years, gas exports and revenues fell dramatically for Gazprom. While high monopolistic prices and European dependency on the Moscow-based company certainly played a role in causing country’s to look elsewhere for gas, the role of shale and the desire for energy independence by some countries in Europe such as Poland has undoubtedly been affecting Gazprom.

Oddgeir Danielson, an oil and gas expert in the Norwegian Barents Secretariat, said the repeated postponement of the Shtokman project illustrates current uncertainties in that market and highlights Gazprom’s conflict with shale.

Directors at Shtokman Development will meet again on February 5, 2010 to agree on a new marketing plan for the offshore field. There is a possibility the directors may also delay a final investment decision on the venture.

SOURCES:
Alaska Dispatch: “Gazprom eating crow on shale gas?”
Barents Observer: “Gazprom might abandon Shtokman”
The Guardian: “BP chief hails American breakthrough in gas supplies from shale rocks”
The Moscow Times: “Shtokman Meeting to Consider Gas Buyers”
Business Insider: “Gazprom: Shale is a joke, and it can’t possibly compete with gas”

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Jan 28

Though French energy giant Total recently announced a $2.25 billion joint venture with Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy Corp., the venture isn’t saying much about the potential for shale gas in France.

This particular deal will see Total invest billions of dollars to acquire 25 per cent of Chesapeake’s Barnett Shale assets – a natural gas field in Texas – rather than staying close to home and exploring the rich resources the European country has to offer.

“There is much shale gas in France,” said Francois Laurant, the man in charge of shale gas at Institut Francais du Petrole. “It has been seeping for centuries around the town of Grenoble in midsoutheastern France. But the disputed areas hold black shale in shallower ground than elsewhere in France like the Paris basin.”

Since late 2008, several companies have been seeking permits to explore shale gas prospects in the southern regions of the country. In August 2009, Toreador was granted a contract for the exploitation of the Paris Basin Oil Shale earning the right to develop 649,000 acres (with an additional 153,000 acres pending approval) where an estimated 65 billion barrels of oil are believed to remain in shale plays.

France’s potential – and, undoubtedly Europe’s potential – was further highlighted when oil giants BP, Shell and Statoil began talks of buying Toreador earlier this month (read: Oil giants BP, Shell and Statoil in talks to buy US-based Toreador Resources) in the interest of acquiring its French shale opportunities.

Shale gas is experiencing an unprecedented boom in the United States, but its popularity is pushing companies and entrepreneurs to look beyond US borders for prime investment opportunities. Recently, Vancouver-based Realm Energy publicly threw its hat into the ring for European exploration, concentrating on eight discrete sedimentary basins in seven European countries and submitted applications for oil and gas rights that collectively extend over 1.5 million acres of land.

SOURCE:
Oil & Gas Journal: “Shale Gas Acreage, European Database Draw Interest”
Rigzone: “Toreador Zeroes is on Paris Basin Oil Shale for Future Developments”
Toreador: “Global Activity – France”
Realm: “Realm Energy Makes Aggressive Play for European Shale Gas Deposits”

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Jan 26
Oil and gas rights could span more than 1.5 million acres
Realm Energy International Corporation (“Realm Energy”) (TSX-V:RLM) (www.realmenergy.ca), is pleased to announce its recent applications for oil and gas rights in multiple countries throughout Continental Europe. The applications were filed following a rigorous evaluation of high potential shale deposits throughout the continent and, if successful, will permit Realm Energy to bring North American technological advancements in shale gas and oil extraction to Europe.
Realm Energy is now concentrating on eight discrete sedimentary basins in seven European countries and submitted applications for oil and gas rights that collectively extend over 1.5 million acres of land. Realm Energy received confirmation of receipt from government bodies that its applications are under active consideration.
“After months of rigorous evaluation, confirmation that our applications are under active consideration is an important step toward our goal of acquiring oil and gas rights over significant lands containing high-potential shale formations,” said Craig Steinke, Executive Chairman. “We stand behind our extensive evaluation process and strongly believe that Realm Energy is positioned to maximize the possibility of favorable outcomes from these applications.”
Realm Energy is collaborating with Halliburton Consulting ( HAL) in aggressively evaluating high potential shale deposits throughout Europe and select emerging countries. In addition to its filed applications, Realm Energy is evaluating other undeveloped shale plays and intends to make further applications to various governments for oil and gas rights in early 2010.
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